Energy

China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should expect stock market and commodity volatility and prefer defensive positioning.

In this report, we highlight why there are upside risks to Brent crude oil and copper prices going into 2024, with the production side expected to drive deficits in these markets. To take advantage of a potential rally, we suggest basket plays for hedging this outcome.

The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall.

We continue to expect China to deploy stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus to avoid prolonged deflation brought about by a liquidity trap and sub-zero growth. All the same, a lower-growth risk has been added to our ensemble forecast. We expect Brent to trade at $94/bbl in 2H23, and $120/bbl next year. WTI will trade $4 – $6/bbl lower.

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

The odds of Russia cutting oil output will rise going into 4Q23, as Ukraine’s endgame increases pressure on it, and it actively seeks to undermine President Biden’s re-election. We reckon a 2mm b/d cut would push Brent above $140/bbl by December 2024. This would push inflation and inflation expectations higher and raise the odds of more Fed rate hikes. BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy will remain long the COMT and XOP ETFs. At tonight’s close, we will be getting long December 2024 $100/bbl Brent calls.