In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but…
Crude oil prices weakened following the release of the US EIA’s weekly report on Wednesday, reversing gains earlier in the session and ultimately ending the day lower. The data release showed commercial crude inventories…
The commodity complex performed exceptionally poorly last year. Industrial metals and crude oil were among the few major financial assets we track that posted negative z-scores in 2023. Indeed, the 12% drop in the Golman Sachs…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
Friday’s Eurozone CPI inflation report was in line with consensus estimates. Headline inflation reaccelerated from 2.4%y/y to 2.9%y/y in December, in part reflecting the impact of the end of energy subsidies in Germany and…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, attacks on commercial tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Iran’s proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, are an inflation risk. Just under 9%…
The attacks on Red Sea commercial tankers by Iran’s Yemeni proxies, the Houthi movement, are an inflation risk inasmuch as they lengthen voyage times for any shipping forced to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The risk of an expansion…
The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?
Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run…
The short answer, according to our colleagues at BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) is straightforward, but not simple: Political economy – i.e., how states organize and operate their economies to support…