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Emerging Markets

Mexican Equities Face Risk Premium Due To Twin Elections
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Mexico’s presidential election on June 2 is likely to produce policy continuity, but a big win for the ruling party would be market-negative, at least initially. There is a 60% subjective…
Daily Insights
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Bunds In A Bind

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fade These Rallies, Despite Upgraded Asia Growth Forecast
Upward growth revisions for China and India have led the IMF to recently upgrade its 2024 growth forecast for Asia to 4.5% from 4.2%. The regional growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.3%. The IMF now expects the Chinese economy to grow at a 4.6%…
Daily Insights
What Is Driving The Commodity Rally?
The S&P GSCI broad commodity index has returned 8% year-to-date. Improving investor sentiment has significantly broadened the rally since the beginning of the year. Over 65% of commodities in the index are now trading above their 200-day moving averages,…
Daily Insights
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
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Timing The Breakout In Bond Yields

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Caixin Services PMI Underscores Positive Demand Dynamics
The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive dynamics. New business growth…
Daily Insights
Fade The Rally In Chinese Stocks
Chinese investable stocks have rallied on a combination of investors’ hopes for stimulus, revival in the global manufacturing cycle and cheap valuations. The MSCI China index and the Hang Seng have both gained close to 15% since mid-April. However, our…
Daily Insights
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A Conversation With Ms. Mea: Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise

Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets benefiting from these flows will likely be hurt.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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US Politics In May And June

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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