Emerging Markets
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
Though hope springs eternal among global investors for big-bang stimulus from Beijing, the closely watched Third Plenum adjourned without any specific prescriptions to reverse China’s economic slump. The communiqué marking the end of the session was long…
The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Two of Brazil’s ever-recurring demons have come back to haunt investors: public debt sustainability and persistent inflation. According to the latest report from our Emerging Markets Strategy (EMS) team, these troubles are set to worsen in the next six to…
Outside of the US, forward earnings have grown at an underwhelming pace this year. Forward earnings for MSCI US have expanded by 7.3% in 2024YTD while MSCI EMU has remained flat and MSCI Japan has contracted by 4.9%. Against this backdrop, EMs stand out as…
China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the previous month. Our China Strategists…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through June. The stock of outstanding bank loans grew by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since records began in 2003. Additionally, bond issuance from…
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising policy rates has not helped the currency…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally's persistence, however, will depend…