The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural…
Historically, there has been a tight inverse relationship between the price of gold and US real rates. Elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the yellow metal relatively less attractive for…
Emerging market debt is typically thought of as a cyclical asset. When risk assets sell off and the dollar rises, this asset class has historically suffered. However, there are some signs that the risk-on nature of EM debt has…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing will engage in ongoing negotiations with the EU regarding its import tax decision rather than impose meaningful retaliatory measures. The EU and…
The EU's import tariff increases on Chinese EVs are expected to have a minimal impact on China's overall exports. We anticipate that most Western-brand EV shipments from China will be less affected by the EU import tax hike. Beijing…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions and they surprised to the upside in May. Notably, electronics exports, which…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and…