Taiwanese export orders and South Korean exports are sending a warning about the state of Asia’s manufacturing cycle. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June slowed to 29.5% y/y from 53.3%. Similarly, Taiwan’s…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening for China’s communist party. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has ended.…
The Brazilian real was up 1.4% versus the dollar on Thursday – a day of broad dollar strength. The gain comes on the back of the Central Bank of Brazil’s decision to hike rates by 75 bps for the third consecutive time…
Emerging Markets Strategy has been recommending that investors position for a dollar rebound and believes the dollar’s move will be playable: it will be meaningful and last a few months. US dollar strength will be driven by…
Singapore trade data is flagging a small warning about the state of the global manufacturing cycle. The country’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined 0.1% m/m in May, disappointing expectations of a 4.5% m/m increase.…
Highlights Oil demand expectations remain high. Realized demand continues to disappoint. This means OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy – i.e., keeping the level of supply below demand – will continue to dictate…
The May economic data confirm that China’s domestic demand recovery has passed its peak strength. Most of the macro indicators released yesterday are below the consensus and growing at a slower rate (on both a year-on-year…
Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss the outlook for China’s economy and financial markets, a year into policy normalization. The webcasts will be held…
Note: An update on Peru is available on page 10. Highlights The longer it takes the Colombian government to drastically expand fiscal policy and increase social benefits, the higher the risk that next year’s presidential…