Singapore is a small open economy that is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles. The country’s exports have historically been a good leading indicator of global economic activity. This…
Chinese retail sales, industrial production, and fixed assets investment data for July disappointed. Retail sales slowed to 8.5% y/y in July from 12.1%, versus expectations of 10.9%. Similarly, industrial production decelerated…
Highlights The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan is symbolic – the US is conducting a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific to confront China. US-Iran negotiations are the linchpin of this pivot. If they fail, war risk will…
On Friday, the Baltic Dry Index jumped to an 11-year high on the back of the partial closure of the world’s third busiest port. The shutdown of China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan port comes as Beijing battles a resurgence in COVID-19…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that overall the outlook for the EM GBI bond index’s total return in USD is bleak. Emerging markets can be separated into four groups: 1. The economies where…
Highlights Going into the new crop year, we expect the course of the broad trade-weighted USD to dictate the path taken by grain and bean prices (Chart of the Week). Higher corn stocks in the coming crop year, flat wheat stocks and…
Chinese money and credit data was significantly weaker than anticipated in July. Aggregate financing fell to CNY 1.06 trillion from June’s CNY 3.7 trillion, missing expectations of a CNY 1.7 trillion increase. Similarly, M0, M1,…
Dear client, In addition to this abridged Strategy Report, we are sending a report written by Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of BCA’s Emerging Market Investment service. Arthur shares his thoughts on the future of Chinese…