China’s trade surplus eased to $71.7 billion in November, below expectations that it would remain broadly unchanged following October’s record $84.5 billion. The narrower trade balance reflects both an acceleration in…
The PBoC’s decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps is unlikely to be a game changer for the Chinese economy. The more important drivers of China’s business cycle and financial markets are credit growth…
The world’s two largest economies are diverging on monetary policy. The Fed is starting to normalize policy by tapering its asset purchases and preparing to hike interest rates next year. Meanwhile, the PBoC is easing…
Tensions are once again soaring along the Russia-Ukraine border. Moscow has deployed nearly 100,000 Russian troops as well as weaponry, raising alarm bells that they are planning an incursion. US policymakers are warning of an…
The mainstream EM (EM economies excluding China, Korea and Taiwan) equity market cap-weighted currency spot rate versus the US dollar is not far from its 2020 spring lows. On a total return basis – when carry…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today where we outline our thoughts on the global economy and the direction of financial markets for 2022 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Friday, December 10th…
Highlights Financial markets in both mainstream EM and China are undergoing an adjustment that is not yet complete. EM equity and currency valuations are neutral. When valuations are neutral, the profit and liquidity cycles become the…
Chinese authorities are taking steps to limit foreign listings of Chinese companies. According to media reports, Beijing is planning to ban companies from using the variable interest entities structure – a loophole used by…
Emerging market currencies have weakened sharply over the past two weeks. The JP Morgan EM currency index is now at lows last seen during the initial COVID-19 shock in spring 2020. The significant selloff raises the…
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese economic activity accelerated in November. The composite PMI increased by 1.4 percentage points to 52.2. This improvement reflects the manufacturing PMI’s…