Highlights We reformatted and added three sections to our existing trade tables: strategic themes, cyclical asset allocations and tactical investment recommendations. An extensive audit of our current trade book shows that our country…
Chinese employment in the manufacturing sector as a share of total employment declined steadily from 29% in 2014 to 22% in 2019. However, the latest annual figure for 2020 is unchanged from the previous year. Similarly, the…
The South African rand depreciated 15% versus the greenback between June and November 2021. However, this trend has reversed in recent weeks and it is now up 3% since then. The ZAR’s latest move coincides with measures to…
China’s GDP growth rate moderated from 4.9% y/y to 4.0% y/y in Q4, indicating that economic activity eased in the final quarter of 2021. Monthly economic data also suggests that domestic demand was weak in December. Retail…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Chinese share prices remain in a risk window. A model based on a regression of aggregate industrial profits on China’s credit impulse suggests that…
Even though policymakers in Beijing are shifting towards a greater emphasis on stabilizing the economy (see Country Focus), our Emerging Markets strategists do not yet recommend investors shift in favor of China plays such as…
Chinese policymakers have recently shifted to prioritize macroeconomic stability ahead of the politically important 20th Party Congress at the end of this year. This shift is clear from communication out of the annual Central…
Highlights Chart 1Stick With Steepeners The new year promises to be one of Fed tightening. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting reinforced the notion that rate hikes will begin as early as March and the market is now…
Taiwan’s exports continue to indicate that the state of global manufacturing is robust. Exports expanded 23.4% y/y in December, bringing the value of exports in 2021 to a record $447 billion – nearly 30% above year-…