Highlights Chart 1A Tough Balancing Act For The Fed In last week’s Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jay Powell talked about his goal of achieving a “soft landing”. That is, the Fed will tighten enough to…
With Russia and Ukraine accounting for less than 3% of Chinese exports, the Ukraine conflict is likely to have a limited direct impact on the Chinese economy. Data released on Monday reveal that China’s trade surplus beat…
Executive Summary US Can Do Without Russia's Oil, EU, NATO … Not So Much The US will ban Russian oil imports shortly. This is not as big a deal markets had feared over the weekend, when news of a possible ban of…
Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should have a limited direct impact on China’s domestic economy, inflation and monetary policy. Chinese stocks were…
Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a stagflationary shock that comes at a difficult time for developed market central banks that have been laying the groundwork…
Executive Summary Russian Stocks Are Breaking Below Their 2008 And 2015 Lows The Kremlin will not halt its military operations in Ukraine for now. The strategic objective of Putin is to bring Ukraine back into its…
Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical…
Global manufacturing PMI data for February were modestly positive. The US and European manufacturing PMIs remain well above the 50 line, suggesting manufacturing was robust in DM economies prior to the current geopolitical…