Emerging Markets

Special Report

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Back From The Future: An Investor’s Almanac Stocks will rally over the next six months as recession risks abate but then begin to swoon as it becomes clear the Fed will not cut rates in 2023. A second wave of inflation will begin in mid-2023, forcing the Fed to raise rates to 5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield will rise above 4%. While financial conditions are currently not tight enough to induce a recession, they will be by the end of next year. In the past, the US unemployment rate has gone through a 20-to-22 month bottoming phase. This suggests that a recession will start in early 2024. The US dollar will soften over the next six months but then get a second wind as the Fed is forced to turn hawkish again. Over the long haul, the dollar will weaken, reflecting today’s extremely stretched valuations.   Bottom Line: Investors should remain tactically overweight global equities but look to turn defensive early next year. Somewhere in Hilbert Space I have long believed that anything that can possibly happen in financial markets (as well as in life) will happen. Sometimes, however, it is useful to focus on a “base case” or “modal” outcome of what the world will look like. In this week’s report, we do just that, describing the evolution of the global economy from the perspective of someone who has already seen the future unfold. September 2022 – Goldilocks! US headline inflation continues to decline thanks to lower food and gasoline prices (Chart 1). Supply-chain bottlenecks ease, as evidenced by falling transportation costs and faster delivery times (Chart 2). Most measures of economic activity bottom out and then begin to rebound. The surge in bond yields earlier in 2022 pushed down aggregate demand, but with yields having temporarily stabilized, demand growth returns to trend. The S&P 500 moves up to 4,400. Chart 1ALower Food And Gasoline Prices Will Drag Down Headline Inflation (I) Chart 1BLower Food And Gasoline Prices Will Drag Down Headline Inflation (II)   October 2022 – Europe’s Prospects of Avoiding a Deep Freeze Improve: Economic shocks are most damaging when they come out of the blue. With about half a year to prepare for a cut-off of Russian gas, the EU responds with uncharacteristic haste: Coal-fired electricity production ramps up; the planned closure of Germany’s nuclear power plants is postponed; the French government boosts nuclear capacity, which had been running at less than 50% earlier in 2022; and, for its part, the Dutch government agrees to raise output from the massive Groningen natural gas field after the EU commits to establishing a fund to compensate the surrounding community for any damage from increased seismic activity. EUR/USD rallies to 1.06.  November 2022 – Divided Congress and Trump 2.0: In line with pre-election polling, the Democrats retain the Senate but lose the House (Chart 3). Markets largely ignore the outcome. To no one’s surprise, Donald Trump announces his candidacy for the 2024 election. Over the following months, however, the former president has trouble rekindling the magic of his 2016 bid. His attacks on his main rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, fall flat. At one rally in early 2023, Trump’s claim that “Ron is no better than Jeb” is greeted with boos. Chart 2Supply-Chain Pressures Are Easing Chart 3Democrats Will Lose The House But Retain The Senate   December 2022 – China’s “At Least One Child Policy”: The 20th Party Congress takes place against the backdrop of strict Covid restrictions and a flailing housing market. In addition to reaffirming his Common Prosperity Initiative, President Xi stresses the need for actions that promote “family formation.” The number of births declined by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2021 and all indications suggest that the birth rate fell further in 2022 (Chart 4). Importantly for investors, Xi says that housing policy should focus not on boosting demand but increasing supply, even if this comes at the expense of lower property prices down the road. Base metal prices rally on the news. Chart 4China's Baby Bust January 2023 – Putin Declares Victory: Faced with continued resistance by Ukrainian forces – which now have wider access to advanced western military technology – Putin declares that Russia’s objectives in Ukraine have been met. Following the playbook in Crimea and the Donbass, he orders referenda to be held in Zaporizhia, Kherson, and parts of Kharkiv, asking the local populations if they wish to join Russia. The legitimacy of the referenda is immediately rejected by the Ukrainian government and the EU. Nevertheless, the Russian military advance halts. While the West pledges to maintain sanctions against Russia, the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices decreases. February 2023 – Credit Spreads Narrow Further: At the worst point for credit in early July 2022, US high-yield spreads were pricing in a default rate of 8.1% over the following 12 months (Chart 5). By late August, the expected default rate has fallen to 5.2%, and by January 2023, it has dropped to 4.5%. Perceived default risks decline even more in Europe, where the economy is on the cusp of a V-shaped recovery following the prior year’s energy crunch. Chart 5The Spread-Implied Default Rate Has Room To Fall If Recession Fears Abate March 2023 – Wages: The New Core CPI? US inflation continues to drop, but a heated debate erupts over whether this merely reflects the unwinding of various pandemic-related dislocations or whether it marks true progress in cooling down the economy. Those who argue that higher interest rates are cooling demand point to the decline in job openings. Skeptics retort that the drop in job openings has been matched by rising employment (Chart 6). To the extent that firms have been converting openings into new jobs, the skeptics conclude that labor demand has not declined. In a series of comments, Jay Powell stresses the need to focus on wage growth as a key barometer of underlying inflationary pressures. Given that wage growth remains elevated, market participants regard this as a hawkish signal (Chart 7). The 10-year Treasury yield rises to 3.2%. The DXY index, having swooned from over 108 in July 2022 to just under 100 in February 2023, moves back to 102. After hitting a 52-week high of 4,689 the prior month, the S&P 500 drops back below 4,500. Chart 6Drop In Job Openings Is Matched By Rise In Employment Chart 7Wage Growth Remains Strong   April 2023 – Covid Erupts Across China: After successfully holding back Covid for over three years, the dam breaks. When lockdowns fail to suppress the outbreak, the government shifts to a mitigation strategy, requiring all elderly and unvaccinated people to isolate at home. It helps that China’s new mRNA vaccines, launched in late 2022, prove to be successful. By early 2023, China also has sufficient supplies of Pfizer’s Paxlovid anti-viral drug. Nevertheless, the outbreak in China temporarily leads to renewed supply-chain bottlenecks. May 2023 – Biden Confirms He Will Stand for Re-Election: Saying he is “fit as a fiddle,” President Biden confirms that he will seek a second term in office. Little does he know that the US will be in a recession during most of his re-election campaign. Chart 8Consumer Confidence And Real Wages Tend To Move Together June 2023 – Inflation: The Second Wave Begins: The decline in inflation between mid-2022 and mid-2023 sows the seeds of its own demise. As prices at the pump and in the grocery store decline, real wage growth turns positive. Consumer confidence recovers (Chart 8). Household spending, which never weakened that much to begin with, surges. The economy starts to overheat again, leading to higher inflation. After having paused raising rates at 3.5% in early 2023, the Fed indicates that further hikes may be necessary. The DXY index strengthens to 104. The S&P 500 dips to 4,300. July 2023 – Tech Stock Malaise: Higher bond yields weigh on tech stocks. Making matters worse, investors start to worry that many of the most popular US tech names have gone “ex-growth.” The evolution of tech companies often follows three stages. In the first stage, when the founders are in charge, the company grows fast thanks to the introduction of new, highly innovative products or services. In the second stage, as the tech company matures, the founders often cede control to professional managers. Company profits continue to grow quickly, but less because of innovation and more because the professional managers are able to squeeze money from the firm’s customers. In the third stage, with all the low-lying fruits already picked, the company succumbs to bureaucratic inertia. As 2023 wears on, it becomes apparent that many US tech titans are entering this third stage. August 2023 – Long-term Inflation Expectations Move Up: Unlike in 2021-22, when long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored in the face of rising realized inflation, the second inflation wave in 2023 is accompanied by a clear rise in long-term inflation expectations. Consumer expectations of inflation 5-to-10 years out in the University of Michigan survey jump to 3.5%. Whereas back in August 2022, the OIS curve was discounting 100 basis points of Fed easing starting in early 2023, it now discounts rate hikes over the remainder of 2023 (Chart 9). The 10-year yield rises to 3.8%. The 10-year TIPS yield spikes to 1.2%, as investors price in a higher real terminal rate. The S&P 500 drops to 4,200. The financial press is awash with comparisons to the early 1980s (Chart 10). Chart 9The Markets Expect The Fed To Cut Rates By Over 100 Basis Points Starting In 2023 Chart 10The Early-1980s Playbook October 2023 – Hawks in Charge: After a second round of tightening, featuring three successive 50 basis-point hikes, the Fed funds rate reaches a cycle peak of 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield gets up to as high as 4.28%. The 10-year TIPS yield hits 1.62%. The DXY index rises to 106. The S&P 500 falls to 4,050. November 2023 – Housing Stumbles: With mortgage yields back above 6%, the US housing market weakens anew. The fallout from rising global bond yields is far worse in some smaller developed economies such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, where home price valuations are more stretched (Chart 11). Chart 11Rising Rates Will Weigh On Developed Economies With Pricey Housing Markets January 2024 – Unemployment Starts to Rise: After moving sideways since March 2022, the US unemployment rate suddenly jumps 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, with payrolls contracting for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The 22-month stretch of a flat unemployment rate is broadly in line with the historic average (Table 1). Table 1In Past Cycles, The Unemployment Rate Has Moved Sideways For Nearly Two Years Before A Recession Began February 2024 – The US Recession Begins: Although there was considerable debate about whether the US was entering a recession at the time, in early 2025, the NBER would end up declaring that February 2024 marked the start of the recession. The 10-year yield falls back below 4% while the S&P 500 drops to 3,700. Lower bond yields are no longer protecting stocks.  March 2024 – The Fed Remains in Neutral: Jay Powell says further rate hikes are unwarranted in light of the weakening economy, but with core inflation still running at 3.5%, the Fed is in no position to ease. April 2024 – The Global Recession Intensifies: The US unemployment rate rises to 4.7%. The economic downdraft is especially sharp in America’s neighbor to the north, where the Canadian housing market is in shambles. Back in June 2022, the Canadian 10-year yield was 21 basis points above the US yield. By April 2024, it is 45 basis points below. Europe and Japan also fall into recession. Commodity prices continue to drop, with Brent oil hitting $60/bbl. May 2024 – The Fed Cuts Rates: Reversing its position from just two months earlier, the Federal Reserve cuts rates for the first time since March 2020, lowering the Fed funds rate from 5% to 4.5%. The Fed funds rate will ultimately bottom at 2.5%, below the range of 3.5%-to-4% that most economists will eventually recognize as neutral. August 2024 – Republican National Convention: Unwilling to spend much of his own money on the campaign, and with most donations flowing to DeSantis, Trump’s bid to reclaim the White House fizzles. While the former president never formally bows out of the race, the last few months of his primary campaign end up being a nostalgia tour of his past accomplishments, interspersed with complaints about all the ways that he has been wronged. In the end, though, Trump makes a lasting imprint on the Republican party. During his acceptance speech, in typical Trumpian style, Ron DeSantis attacks Joe Biden for “eating ice cream while the economy burns” and declares, to thunderous applause, that “Americans are sick and tired of having woke nonsense hurled in their faces and then being dared to deny it at the risk of losing their jobs.” Chart 12The Dollar Is Very Overvalued October 2024 – The Stock Market Hits Bottom: While the unemployment rate continues to rise for another 12 months, ultimately reaching 6.4%, the S&P troughs at 3,200. The 10-year Treasury yield settles at 3.1% before starting to drift higher. The US dollar, which began to weaken anew after the Fed starts cutting rates, enters a prolonged bear market. As in past cycles, the dollar is unable to defy the gravitational force from extremely stretched valuations (Chart 12). November 2024 – President DeSantis: Against the backdrop of rising unemployment, uncomfortably high inflation, and a sinking stock market, Ron DeSantis cruises to victory in the 2024 presidential election. Unlike Trump, DeSantis deemphasizes corporate tax cuts and deregulation during his presidency, focusing instead on cultural issues. With the Democrats still committed to progressive causes, big US corporations discover that for the first time in modern history, neither of the two major political parties are willing to champion their interests. Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com Follow me on LinkedIn & Twitter Global Investment Strategy View Matrix Special Trade Recommendations Current MacroQuant Model Scores      

Executive Summary Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall Russia will have to lower oil production to ensure output it hasn’t placed with non-EU buyers does not tax its limited storage facilities, ahead of the bloc’s December 5 embargo. The EU’s insurance/reinsurance ban on ships carrying Russian material also commences in December. It will profoundly affect Russian output, if fully implemented. Russian and Chinese firms will expand ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas, along with external processing and storage services to mask crude and product exports. The EU embargos will force Russia to shut in ~ 1.6mm b/d of output by year-end, rising to 2mm b/d in 2023, by our reckoning. Gas-to-oil switching in Europe will boost distillate and residual fuel demand by ~ 800K b/d this winter. Chinese policymakers will be compelled to deploy greater fiscal and credit support to reverse weakening GDP. Tighter monetary policy in DM economies will dampen aggregate demand. Bottom Line: EU embargoes on Russian oil imports will significantly tighten markets, and lift Brent to $119/bbl by year-end. This has a 60% chance of being offset by ~ 1mm b/d of Iranian oil exports in 2023, in our estimation. We are maintaining our Brent forecast at $110/bbl on average for this year, and $117/bbl next year. WTI will trade $3-$5/bbl lower. At tonight’s close we are re-establishing our long COMT ETF position. Risks remain to the upside. Feature Chart 1Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall Following an unexpected increase in production during June and July, Russia will have to begin reducing its oil output ahead of the implementation of the EU’s embargo on its seaborne crude oil imports, which kicks on December 5. EU, UK and US shipping insurance and reinsurance sanctions also are scheduled to be implemented in December. If fully implemented, ~ 2.3mm b/d of seaborne imports of Russian crude oil will be excluded from EU markets by year-end. Come February, another 800k b/d of refined products will be embargoed. On the back of these lost sales, and production that cannot be loaded on ships due to insurance/reinsurance bans, we expect Russian production to fall ~ 2mm b/d by the end of next year (Chart 1).1 As noted in previous research, a goodly chunk of Russian crude continues to go to China and India. Together, these two states accounted for just over 40% of Russia’s crude sales last month – ~ 1.9mm b/d of a total of ~ 4.5mm b/d. This is down from just under 45.5% in May, according to Reuters. Both China and India have benefited from discounted prices of ~ 30% vs. Brent, which is a powerful inducement to buy. Asia accounts for more than half of Russia’s seaborne crude oil sales, according to Bloomberg data. Related Report  Commodity & Energy StrategyTighter Oil Markets On The Way Whether China and India can maintain these purchases depends on whether ships taking oil to them can get their cargoes insured. Both states have domestic insurance providers, and, in the case of the latter, long-standing trade relationships going back decades. Other Asian economies do not have such financial infrastructure. Still, this is a high concentration of sales to two buyers. In addition, press reports indicate China spent $347mm to secure tankers to conduct high-risk ship-to-ship (STS) transfers of Russian crude in the Atlantic Ocean.2 Similar STS transfers have been used to move ~ 1.2mm b/d of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil, most of which ends up in China, according to Lloyds. Base Case Sees Markets Balance In our base case analysis, markets remain relatively balanced going into winter. On the supply side, we expect core OPEC 2.0 – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – to continue to provide crude to the markets subject to their spare-capacity constraints (Chart 2, top panel). KSA likely will be producing close to 11mm b/d by year-end – vs its current output of 10.6mm b/d output presently – and the UAE will be close to 3.5mm b/d, vs 3.1mm b/d at present. KSA’s max capacity is 12mm b/d, while the UAE’s is 4mm b/d; both will want to maintain spare capacity to offset unexpected exogenous supply shocks next year. These two states account for most of the spare capacity in the world (Chart 3). The rest of OPEC 2.0 will continue to struggle to maintain its production, which makes the core producers’ spare capacity critically important (Chart 2, bottom panel). Chart 2Core OPEC 2.0 Will Increase Supply Chart 3Spare Capacity Concentrated In Core OPEC 2.0 Outside of OPEC 2.0, we are expecting the largest contribution to global supply will continue to come from US shale production (Chart 4). Shale-oil output in the top 5 US basins is expected to increase ~540K b/d this year, and next. This will take shale output to slighly above 7.5mm b/d and account for 76% of Lower 48 production in the States this year. Next year, we are expecting US Lower 48 production to rise 700K b/d, and for total US crude output to go to 12.8mm b/d, a new record. Chart 4US Remains Top Non-OPEC 2.0 Supplier This winter we are expecting an uptick in oil demand – particularly for distillates like gasoil and diesel in Europe, as EU firms switch from natural gas to oil on the margin. We expect this will add 800K b/d of demand over the winter months (November through March), which will lift our overall demand estimate 150k b/d this year, and 20K b/d next year – +2.19mm b/d vs +2.04mm b/d, and 1.82mm b/d vs. 1.80mm b/d next year. Chinese year-on-year oil demand growth remains negative. January-July 2022 demand was 15.24mm b/d vs 15.34mm b/d in 2021, continuing a string of y/y contractions. The two other major economic pillars of global oil demand – the US and Europe – show positive y/y growth of 800K b/d each over the same period. Global demand in 1H22 recovered to 98% of its pre-COVID-19 level – even with China’s negative y/y growth – while supply recovered to 96% of its pre-pandemic level, according to the International Energy Forum (IEF). Over most of the forecast period, we estimate global balances will continue to show the level of supply below that of demand, which will lead to continued physical deficits (Chart 5). Refined-product inventories increased by 34mm barrels in 1H22, while crude-oil stocks fell 23mm barrels. Global crude and product inventories are ~ 460mm barrels below their five-year average, which includes pandemic demand destruction, the IEF reported. We continue to expect inventories to remain below their 2010-14 average, which we prefer to track – it excludes the market-share wars of 2015-17 and that of 2020, and the pandemic’s effects on inventories (Chart 6). This will revive the backwardation in Brent and WTI prices, particularly if the loss of Russian barrels is larger than we expect this year and next. This could be dampened if the US resumes its SPR releases after they’ve run their course in October. Chart 5Global Market Balanced, But Slight Deficits Will Persist Chart 6OECD Inventories Below 5Y Average Investment Implications Our analysis indicates markets are mostly balanced going into winter (Table 1). That said, the balance of risks remains to the upside ahead of the EU’s embargoes on Russian crude and product imports, and the EU/UK/US insurance/reinsurance bans on providing cover for vessels carrying Russian material. This all is highly contingent on the extent to which the EU and its allies follow through on these punitive actions imposed on Russia in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine. Table 1BCA Global Oil Supply - Demand Balances (MMb/d, Base Case Balances) To Dec23 The removal from the market of some 2mm b/d of Russian oil production due to the various EU embargoes – even if it is offset by the return of 1mm b/d of Iranian exports on the back of a deal with the US – will push crude oil prices higher and inventories lower (Chart 7).3  Chart 7Brent Price Expectation Unchanged, But Demand Shifts To Winter Given these views, we remain long the oil and gas producer XOP ETF, which is up 19.5% since we re-established it on July 5, and, at tonight’s close, will be re-establishing our COMT ETF, to take advantage of higher energy and commodity prices and increasing backwardation in oil markets as inventories draw.   Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Ashwin Shyam Research Analyst Commodity & Energy Strategy ashwin.shyam@bcaresearch.com Paula Struk Research Associate Commodity & Energy Strategy paula.struk@bcaresearch.com Commodities Round-Up Energy: Bullish US distillate inventories – diesel and heating oil mostly – were up less than 1% for the week ended 12 August 2022, according to the US EIA. US distillate inventories stood at 112mm barrels. This did nothing to reverse the deep drawdown in distillate inventories of 18.5% y/y, which, along with European stocks, refiners are attempting to rebuild going into the 2022-23 winter. We expect natgas-to-oil switching this winter to add 800k b/d of demand to the market over the Nov-Mar winter season. Most of this demand will be for distillates, in our view, given its dual use as a fuel for industrial applications and household space-heating. Distillate demand could be higher this winter, if a La Niña produces colder-than-normal temperatures. The US Climate Prediction Center gives the odds of such an outcome 60% going into the 2022-23 winter. This would lift ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures in the US and gasoil futures in Europe higher as inventories draw (Chart 8). Base Metals: Bullish Copper prices dropped on weaker-than-expected Chinese macroeconomic data for July, although the fall was bounded by the People’s Bank of China’s decision to cut interest rates. According to US CFTC data, copper trading volumes are lower than pre-pandemic levels, as hedge funds' net speculative positions turned negative beginning in May and have mostly remained in the red since then. Low trading volumes will result in copper prices being highly susceptible to macroeconomic events, especially those occurring in China. Precious Metals: Neutral Gold prices are facing difficulty overcoming market expectations of high interest rates for the rest of this year (Chart 9). The bearish influence of tightening monetary policy and a strong USD has the upper hand on the supportive effect of recession risks, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty for gold prices. Recent strength in US stock markets - which historically is inversely correlated with gold prices - following better-than-expected earnings, also contributed to recent gold price weakness. Chart 8 Chart 9     Footnotes 1 Please see Oil: It Ain't Over Till It's Over, which we published 11 August 2022, for additional discussion. NB: We discuss the differences between our view and that of our Geopolitical Strategy service regarding a deal between the US and Iran, which returns 1mm b/d of crude oil exports to the market. We give 60% odds to such a deal, while our colleagues at the GPS service assign a 40% probability to it. In our base case modeling presented herein, we expect these barrels to return to the market by 2Q23, perhaps sooner. 2 Please see Anonymous Chinese shipowner spends $376m on tankers for Russian STS hub published by Lloyd’s List 9 August 2022. The report notes, “All the ships are aged 15 years or older, precluding them from chartering by most oil majors, as well being unable to secure conventional financing, suggesting the beneficial owner is cash rich. The high seas logistics network offers scant regulatory and technical oversight as crude cargoes loaded on aframax tankers from Baltic Russian ports are transferred to VLCCs mid-Atlantic for onward shipment to China. One cargo has been tracked to India.“ 3 Please see Oil: It Ain't Over Till It's Over, which we published 11 August 2022, for additional discussion. NB: We discuss the differences between our view and that of our Geopolitical Strategy service regarding a deal between the US and Iran, which returns 1mm b/d of crude oil exports to the market. We give 60% odds to such a deal, while our colleagues at the GPS service assign a 40% probability to it. In our base case modeling presented herein, we expect these barrels to return to the market by 2Q23, perhaps sooner.   Investment Views and Themes Strategic Recommendations Trades Closed in 2022

Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major cyclical turning points – has crept higher since bottoming in January. The diffusion index is rising in part because of very marginal increases in the LEIs of a few countries, but there have been more decisive increases in the LEIs of two major countries outside the developed world – China and Brazil. There is not yet enough evidence pointing to a true bottoming of the BCA global LEI anytime soon, but an improvement in the LEI diffusion index above 50 (i.e. a majority of countries with a rising LEI) would be a more convincing signal that global growth momentum is set to rebound. Bottom Line: Given the uncertain message on growth from our global LEI, and with inflation rates still too high for central banks to pivot dovishly, we recommend staying close to neutral on overall global fixed income duration and modestly defensive on overall spread product exposure. Feature Investors can be forgiven for being a bit confused by some conflicting messages in recent global economic data. For example, US real GDP contracted in both the first and second quarter of this year – a so-called “technical recession” – and consumer confidence is at multi-decade lows, yet the US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level since 1969, in July. A similar story is playing out across the Atlantic, where a historic surge in energy prices was supposed to have already tipped the euro area into recession, yet real GDP expanded in both Q1 and Q2 at an above-trend pace and unemployment continues to decline. At times like the present, when market narratives do not always line up with hard data, we always believe it important to look within our vast suite of indicators to help clear the fog. One of our most trusted growth indicators, the BCA Global Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), is still falling and, thus, signaling a continued deceleration of global growth over at least the next 6-9 months. However, there are some signs of more optimistic news embedded within our global LEI stemming from outside the developed economies, which could be a potential early sign of a bottoming in global growth momentum. In this report, we dig deeper into the guts of our global LEI to assess the odds of an imminent turning point in the LEI and, eventually, global growth. This has important implications for global bond yields, which are likely to remain rangebound until there is greater clarity on global growth momentum (and inflation downside momentum). What Leads The Leading Indicator? The BCA global LEI is a composite index that combines the LEIs of 23 individual countries using GDP weights. The underlying list of countries differs from that of the widely followed OECD LEI, which is comprised of data from 33 countries but with a heavy weighting on developed market economies. The overall OECD LEI excludes important exporting countries such as Taiwan and Singapore, which are highly sensitive to changes in global growth. Most importantly, the OECD LEI omits the world’s largest economy, China. For our global LEI, we prefer to use a smaller set of countries but one that includes China and a bigger weighting on emerging market (EM) economies. For most of the nations in our global LEI, we do use the country-level LEIs produced by the OECD.1 That also includes several large and important non-OECD EM countries for which the OECD calculates LEIs - a list that includes China, Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia and South Africa. For a few selected countries, however, we use the following data: US, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore: LEIs produced by national government data sources or, in the case of the US, the Conference Board. Argentina, Malaysia and Thailand: LEIs are produced in-house at BCA, a necessary step given the lack of domestically-produced LEIs in those countries at the time our global LEI was first constructed. We find that our global LEI leads global real GDP growth by around six months, and leads global industrial production growth by around twelve months (Chart 1). Chart 1A Gloomy Message From Our Global LEI The latest reading on the global LEI from July is pointing to a further deceleration of global GDP into a “growth recession” where GDP is expanding slower than the pace of potential global GDP growth (less than 2%). The global LEI is also pointing to an outright contraction of global industrial production, a path also signaled by the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI index which hit a two-year low of 51.1 – closing in on the 50 level that signifies expanding industrial activity – in July. Chart 2A Ray Of Hope On Global Growth? The momentum of our global LEI is largely influenced by its breadth. Specifically, we have found that when a growing share of countries within the global LEI have individual LEIs that are rising, the overall LEI will eventually follow suit. Thus, the diffusion index of our global LEI, which measures the percentage share of countries with rising individual LEIs, is itself a fairly good leading indicator of the global LEI at major cyclical turning points. We may be approaching such a turning point, as our global LEI diffusion index has increased from a low of 9 back in January of this year to the level of 30 in July (Chart 2). In past business cycles, the diffusion index has tended to lead the global LEI by around 6-9 months, which suggests that a bottom in the actual global LEI could occur sometime in the next few months – although that outcome is conditional on the magnitude of the rise in the diffusion index. In the top half of Table 1, we list previous episodes since 1980 where the global PMI diffusion index followed a similar path to that seen in 2022 – bottoming out below 10 and then rising to at least 30. We identified nine such episodes. In the table, we also show the subsequent change in the level of the global LEI after the increase in the diffusion index. Table 1Global LEI Diffusion Index Greater Than 50 Typically Signals LEI Uptrend The historical experience shows that an increase in the diffusion index to 30 was only enough to trigger a decisive rebound in the global LEI over a 6-12 month horizon in the 2000-01 and 2008 episodes. In several episodes, the global LEI actually contracted despite the pickup in the diffusion index. Related Report  Global Fixed Income StrategyDovish Central Bank Pivots Will Come Later Than You Think In the bottom half of Table 1, we run the same analysis but define the episodes as when the diffusion index rose from a low below 10 to at least 50. Unsurprisingly, periods when at least half of the countries have a rising LEI tend to result more frequently in the overall global LEI entering an uptrend within one year – although the two most recent episodes in 2010 and 2018-19 were notable exceptions. Bottom Line: After looking at past experience, the latest pickup in the global LEI diffusion index has not been by enough to confidently forecast a rebound in the LEI – and, eventually, faster global growth. No Broad-Based Improvement In Our Global LEI When grouping the countries within our global LEI by geographical region, it is clear that there is still no sign of improvement in North America or Europe, but some signs of bottoming in Asia and Latin America (Chart 3). Typically, the regional LEIs tend to be very positively correlated during major cyclical moves in the overall LEI, with no one region being particularly better than the others at consistently leading the global business cycle. Chart 3More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI​​​​​ Table 2Country Weightings In Our Global LEI Of course, the global LEI is a GDP-weighted index that is dominated by the US and China (Table 2). When looking at individual country LEIs, the recent improvement in the LEI diffusion index looks less impressive. Some countries, like the UK and Korea, have only seen a tiny fractional uptick in the most recent LEI reading – moves small enough to qualify as statistical noise, even though the tiniest of positive moves still register as an “increase” when calculating the diffusion index. When looking at all the individual country LEIs within our global LEI, only two countries stand out as having meaningful increases over the past few months – China and Brazil (Chart 4). In the case of China, the idea that there could be signs of improving growth runs counter to the broad swath of recent data that highlight slowing momentum of Chinese consumer spending, business investment and residential construction. However, the production-focused components of the OECD’s China LEI, which we use in our global LEI, have shown some improvement of late (Chart 5). For example, motor vehicle production grew at a 32% year-over-year rate in July according to the OECD’s data, while total construction activity (based on OECD aggregates of production by industry) rose 9% year-over-year. Chart 4LEI Improvement In China & Brazil, Sluggish Elsewhere​​​​​ Chart 5Improvement In Some Components Of The OECD's China LEI​​​​​ The OECD’s LEI methodology is designed to include the minimum number of data series to optimize the fit of the LEI to the growth rate of each country’s industrial production index, which does lead to some peculiar series being included in the LEIs. However, there are signs of a potential rebound in Chinese economic growth evident in indicators preferred by our emerging market strategists, like the change in overall credit and fiscal spending as a share of GDP, a.k.a. the credit and fiscal impulse (Chart 6). The latter has shown a modest improvement that is hinting at faster Chinese growth in 2023, similar to the OECD’s China LEI. Turning to Brazil, the improvement in the OECD’s LEI there is focused on more survey-based data, like confidence among manufacturers and expectations on the demand for services. However, some hard data that the OECD includes in its Brazil LEI, namely net exports to Europe, have also shown clear improvement (Chart 7). Chart 6China Credit/Fiscal Impulse Signaling A Growth Rebound Bottom Line: The modest improvement in our global LEI diffusion index is even less than meets the eye, as only China and Brazil have seen LEI increases that are meaningfully greater than zero. Chart 7Improvement In Many Components Of The OECD's Brazil LEI​​​​​ Investing Around The Global LEI Chart 8Global Financial Conditions Not Signaling An LEI Rebound Investors spend a sizeable chunk of their time focused on the future growth outlook to make investment decisions. This would, presumably, give leading economic indicators a useful role in any investment process. However, when looking at the relationship between our global LEI and the returns on risk assets like equities and corporate credit, the correlation is highly coincident (Chart 8). In other words, risk assets are themselves leading indicators of future economic growth – so much so that equity indices are often included as a component of the leading indicators of individual countries. On that front, the recent rebound in global equity markets, and the pullback in global credit spreads from the mid-June peak, could be signaling a more stable growth outlook that would be reflected in a bottoming of our global LEI. However, the monetary policy cycle matters, as evidenced by the correlation between the shape of government bond yield curves and our global LEI (bottom panel). That relationship is less strong than that of the LEI and equity/credit returns, but there are very few examples where yield curves are flat, or even inverted as is now the case in the US, and leading indicators are rising. Chart 9Stay Neutral On Overall Duration Exposure In the current environment where more central banks are worrying more about overshooting inflation than slowing growth, a turnaround in our global LEI will be difficult to achieve until inflation is much closer to central bank target levels, allowing policymakers to loosen policy and steepen yield curves. We do not expect such a scenario to unfold over at least the next 12-18 months, given broad-based entrenched inflation pressures in global services and labor markets. While leading indicators may not be of much value in forecasting risk assets, we do find value in using them to forecast moves in government bond yields. Regular readers of BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy will be familiar with our Global Duration Indicator, comprised of growth-focused measures that have historically had a leading relationship to the momentum (annual change) in developed market bond yields (Chart 9). The Duration Indicator contains both the global LEI and its diffusion index, as well as the ZEW expectations indices for the US and Europe. Three of those four indicators remain at depressed levels suggesting waning bond yield momentum. Overshooting global inflation has weakened the correlation between bond yield momentum and our Duration Indicator over the past year. However, with global commodity and goods inflation now clearly decelerating, we expect bond momentum to begin tracking growth dynamics more closely again. This leads us to expect bond yields to remain trapped in ranges over at least the balance of 2022, defined most prominently by the 10-year US Treasury yield trading between 2.5% and 3%. Bottom Line: Given the uncertain message on growth from our global LEI, and with inflation rates still too high for central banks to pivot dovishly, we recommend staying close to neutral on overall global fixed income duration and modestly defensive on overall spread product exposure.   Robert Robis, CFA Chief Fixed Income Strategist rrobis@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1   Details on how the OECD calculates the individual country leading economic indicators can be found here: http://www.oecd.org/sdd/leading-indicators/compositeleadingindicatorsclifrequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm\   GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Recommended Positioning     Active Duration Contribution: GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. Custom Performance Benchmark The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Global Fixed Income - Strategic Recommendations* Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months)

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (August 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, 15:00 PM BST, 16:00 PM CEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key recommendations and some charts related to those recommendations and other areas of interest for US bond investors. Please tune in to the Webcast and browse the Chartpack at your leisure, and do let us know if you have any questions or other feedback. To view the Quarterly Chartpack PDF please click here. Best regards, Ryan Swift, US Bond Strategist Treasury Index Returns Spread Product Returns