Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front…
The Indian rupee has lost nearly 7% of its value versus the US dollar since the start of the year. Surging commodity prices pushed India’s trade deficit to new lows in June. Meanwhile, portfolio outflows weighed down on the…
Executive Summary EU Will Prioritize Natgas Storage Russia’s reduction in natural gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline to 20% of capacity will test the EU’s ability to keep the lights on…
Executive Summary If a loss of wealth persists for a year or more, it hurts the economy. The recent $40 trillion slump in global financial wealth is larger than that suffered in the pandemic of 2020, the global financial crisis of…
Last week we noted that rebounding Taiwanese export orders in June do not reflect improving global manufacturing conditions. Instead, a post-lockdown recovery of production lines in China boosted Taiwanese export orders last…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
Executive Summary Upside Oil Price Risk Dominates Despite global recession fears and uncertainty over Russia’s retaliation for the EU embargo against its exports, oil markets will continue to tighten. After breaching…