Elections

Ignore Japan's constitutional debate. Rearmament will accelerate anyway. Tech, defense stocks, and industrials will benefit. The threat to JGBs is real but will probably be contained.

Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive. 

US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle. 

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US economy will slow, weighing on its neighbors. Canada will fare better than Mexico.