Economy
The April ZEW showed continued deterioration in European sentiment, with no sign yet of a rebound. Germany’s expectations component missed estimates and fell to -17.2 from -0.5, while the eurozone measure fell to -20.4 from -8.5. Current conditions in Germany…
March US retail sales beat estimates, but the strength was nominal rather than real. Headline sales rose 1.7% m/m from 0.7%, while core sales (excluding autos and gas) held at 0.6%. The control group, which feeds into GDP, rose 0.7%. The report was however…
The Bank of Canada’s 2026 Q1 Business Outlook Survey improved, but the domestic economy still had slack before the energy shock. The Q1 survey saw the headline index rising to -0.4 from -1.8 in Q4 of last year. The future sales index jumped to 25 from 13 and…
Fed Governor Waller’s latest speech suggests the FOMC’s dovish wing is moving away from the case for cuts. While Waller was one of the most dovish members before the energy shock, his tenure has been marked by prescience at key inflection points on both the…
Our Global Investment strategists see the oil shock's inflationary impact as short-lived. Near-term headline inflation will rise as energy prices filter through, but labor market slack and decelerating wage growth keep the risk of unanchored expectations low.…
The energy shock has hit confidence more than activity so far, while easier financial conditions keep the tactical backdrop supportive for risk assets. The shock hit suddenly, and because hard data lags more timely soft data, the full effect of higher energy…
We do not expect the oil shock to have a lasting effect on inflation. Looking further out, a variety of structural forces will influence inflation, including fiscal policy, globalization, demographics, and AI.
The rates market is moving back into a low vol regime, but with yields at a higher level. This argues for maximizing carry across the Treasury curve.
The latest Beige Book points to steady US growth and firmer inflation pressures despite the energy shock. The Beige Book draws on the Fed’s network of contacts across all districts to gather anecdotal evidence on economic conditions. Growth remains resilient…
The April Empire survey beat estimates and pointed to modestly improving activity alongside rising price pressures. The headline index rose to 11 from -0.2 in March. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Employment measures also improved, with…