Economy
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany was broadly unchanged at 84.3 in October, beating consensus expectations of a decrease to 83.5. The 0.4-point decline in the Current Assessment index was better than consensus estimates of a 1.6-point drop.…
Preliminary October PMI estimates generally point to a broad-based deterioration in economic activity across DM economies. PMIs across the US, Australia, the Eurozone and the UK all deteriorated from September levels. Notably, services in the UK and…
China’s Q3 GDP growth data surprised to the upside. It accelerated to 3.9% y/y from 0.4% y/y in Q2, beating expectations of 3.3% y/y, and returned to growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis following a contraction in Q2. Meanwhile, economic data was mixed in…
Relentless USD strength has caused nearly all major currencies to depreciate versus the greenback this year. However, the chart above highlights that domestic policy played a role in determining the extent of the weakness. The currencies of countries that ran…
On Monday, UK Gilts rallied on news that former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The 10-year yield fell by 31bps while the 2-year yield ended the day 24bps lower – levels that prevailed prior to the…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the biggest banks’ commentary validates their view that a recession has not yet begun and will not begin before late 2023. Except at the lowest end of the income and wealth distributions, consumers…
The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain high.
On their third quarter earnings calls, the largest banks indicated that their household and business customers remain in surprisingly robust shape. We interpret their observations as supporting our constructive near-term take on the economy and financial markets.
The October Fed Beige Book signaled a “modest” rise in economic growth, an improvement from the previous releases’ “unchanged” economic conditions. Notably, travel and tourism rose strongly and manufacturing activity either held steady or expanded in most of…
The October flash release of the European Commission’s Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that household sentiment remains exceptionally weak. Although the index unexpectedly ticked up from -28.8 to -27.6, it remains near September’s record low – beneath…