Economy
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in spending cuts and GBP 25bn in tax…
The latest equity rally and dollar selloff drove the recent easing in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Indexes for both the US and Euro Area. To the extent that financial conditions gauge the availability of funding in an economy, this is a positive…
The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are sending a warning about global demand. They declined by 5.6% y/y in October, marking the first annual contraction since November 2020. In particular, non-oil exports to China, the EU, and Emerging Markets are…
Although the Canadian dollar has been underperforming its G10 peers since the greenback’s September 27 peak, it has held up relatively well on a year-to-date basis. Going forward, both the outlook for BoC policy vis-à-vis the Fed, as well as oil price…
US Retail sales increased by a higher-than-expected 1.3% m/m in October, marking the highest monthly increase since January. Gasoline station sales were by far the largest contributor, though the control group (excluding gasoline stations, food services, auto…
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate surged from 0.5% to 2.0%. Meanwhile,…
US industrial production contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase. Notably, manufacturing output inched up by only 0.1% m/m and the previous three months of expansion have all been revised significantly lower. …
The Reserve Bank of Australia is among the global central banks that are leading the dovish shift in the monetary tightening cycle. Specifically, elevated private sector debt raises the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates, ultimately limiting the…