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Economy

Airlines: How Soft Will The Landing Be?

Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will intensify. While it is highly likely that Airlines will continue to rally into the yearend, we will stick to our underweight as our three-to-six-month outlook remains negative.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Asian Trade Data Send Warning On Global Demand
Taiwanese export orders in USD terms contracted by 6.3% y/y in October, down from a 3.1% decline in the previous month and short of expectations of a milder decrease. Exports to China and Hong Kong drove the bulk of the contraction, which was broad-based…
Daily Insights
Two Sides To The US Consumption Outlook
The near-term outlook for US consumption is a source of debate among BCA strategists. On the one hand, our Global Investment and US Investment strategists are positive on the short-term consumption outlook. They expect healthy balance sheets and large…
Daily Insights
A Weaker Global Economy Often Leads To Oil Surplus
The outlook for oil prices is the source of debate within BCA. While our Commodity & Energy strategists expect oil price risks to remain skewed to the upside, our EM strategists are more bearish on the outlook for Brent. Slower global economic growth…
Daily Insights
Saudi Arabia: Pursuing Counter-Cyclical Policy
Despite Saudi Arabian stocks having outperformed their EM peers over the past couple of years, our Emerging Markets strategists argue that this bourse is due for a breather. Saudi fiscal policy is experiencing a major shift. In a departure from past…
Daily Insights
European Households Vulnerable To Rising Mortgage Rates
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the rise in mortgage rates will weaken housing activity in Europe in the foreseeable future. In 2021, the average homeownership rate among European countries was about 67%, despite outliers…
Daily Insights
What's New?

The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
European Housing: A Market Of Ice And Fire
Special Report

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

European Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
US LEI Deteriorates Further In October
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m in October, marking a deterioration following the previous month’s downwardly revised 0.5% m/m contraction. Negative contributions from consumer…
Daily Insights
UK New Fiscal Plan Improves Outlook For Gilts
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in spending cuts and GBP 25bn in tax…
Daily Insights

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