Economy
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
UK inflation came in hotter-than-anticipated in March. Headline inflation remained in double digits at 10.1% y/y, above expectations that it would recede from 10.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Similarly, the core index was unchanged at 6.2% y/y, disappointing consensus…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…
China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.
The ZEW Survey of German investor sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in April. The sentiment index fell 8.9 points to 4.1, disappointing consensus estimates of an uptick to 15.6 and recording its second consecutive monthly decline. This move reveals that…
China’s economic data sent a positive signal about the domestic recovery following the dismantling of pandemic restrictions. GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022 to 4.5% y/y in Q1 2023, marking the fastest pace in a year and beating expectations…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that Chinese exports unexpectedly rebounded in March. To the extent that Chinese export growth suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is recovering, it poses a risk to our view that the global trade downturn will…
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a positive signal about US manufacturing activity in April. The headline general business conditions index jumped 35.4 points to 10.8, unexpectedly crossing into positive territory for the first time since…
The top diplomats of the G7 countries – US, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy – plus the European Union are meeting in Karuizawa, Japan on April 16-18. The summits are going forward despite Japan’s recent domestic security concerns stemming from a…