Economy
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
The ECB held rates steady for the first time in eight meetings, signaling a slower pace of easing while downside risks and entrenched disinflation support positioning for further cuts. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.0%, with the ECB adopting a…
Recent criticism of the Fed centers on post-GFC policy, but proposed solutions would risk policy incoherence and higher long-end yields. Criticism covers the Fed’s reliance on balance sheet policies aimed at easing financial conditions after hitting the…
The post-Liberation Day dichotomy between improving soft data and worsening hard data points to an uneven recovery, keeping us positioned for downside risk. Soft data cratered post-Liberation Day as policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, with…
Rising political pressure on the Fed risks undermining policy credibility, risking a de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. The Trump administration keeps escalating attacks on Fed Chair Powell. While the Fed cannot ease proactively amid…
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision as one of timing, but…
June Taiwanese export orders surprised to the upside, but weakness in non-tech trade and in broader East Asian exports underscores the narrowness of the global recovery. Orders rose 24.6% y/y, accelerating from 18.5% in May, though m/m US-bound orders fell…
The Q2 Business Outlook Survey showed weaker sentiment and subdued hiring and investment intentions, reinforcing the case for deeper BoC rate cuts and our overweight in Canadian bonds. The BOS indicator ticked down to -2.4 from -2.1 in Q1, with net future…
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.
Consumer sentiment improved modestly in July, but remains at levels that still point to subdued spending, reinforcing our defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 in June. Expectations edged up to 58.6, while…