Economy
The July employment report revealed large downward revisions and slowing payroll growth, reinforcing our defensive stance. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 73k, and prior months were revised down by 258k, bringing the 3-month average to 35k, well below the…
The July ISM Manufacturing miss shows weakening growth and decelerating inflation, reinforcing our long-duration stance. The index fell to 48.0 from 49.0, with only the production component contributing positively. New orders remain weak, and the drop in…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
June US income and spending shows softening demand and rising goods inflation pressure, reinforcing our long-duration stance. Real personal spending only rose 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations. Personal income increased 0.3% m/m, but real income…
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy due to unanchored inflation…
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The BoC held rates at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting, but a weak growth outlook and contained inflation reinforce our overweight in Canadian bonds. With policy within the 2.25%–3.25% neutral range, the BoC remains comfortable waiting for clarity…
Q2 US GDP beat expectations at 3.0% annualized, but the underlying data confirm that growth momentum is fading, reinforcing our defensive stance. Consumption rebounded, but disappointed at 1.4%. The quarter was heavily distorted by trade dynamics: firms…