Economy
Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.
European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food products were the main drivers,…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, in line with expectations. The statement highlighted that inflation continues to moderate, though at a slower-than-expected pace. Board members also pointed out…
Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with metric tons passing through the…
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q1 2024. US banks reported tightening lending standards for C&I and CRE. For real-estate-backed loans to households, lending standards tightened further for Home Equity Line of Credits…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.
The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive dynamics. New business growth…
The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also increased from 52.9 to a higher-than-expected…
Investors generally associate higher investment rates with higher rates of growth. Indeed, companies at the beginning of their life cycle with a lot of high ROI opportunities will generally be more willing to invest their capital. Meanwhile, companies at the…
Chinese investable stocks have rallied on a combination of investors’ hopes for stimulus, revival in the global manufacturing cycle and cheap valuations. The MSCI China index and the Hang Seng have both gained close to 15% since mid-April. However, our…