Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to…
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has…
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD. A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data…
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now…
Chinese authorities have recently ratcheted up support for the currency. The PBoC continues to set its daily yuan fixing at a stronger-than-expected rate, with the yuan midpoint (a reference for trading that caps the range…
Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed…
Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy…
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points…
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders are a bellwether for global trade dynamics, the latest update for July provides a less pessimistic signal about the manufacturing cycle. It shows the pace of decline slowed sharply from…