The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The…
Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in…
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the…
Results of the Banks of Canada’s Q3 business and consumer surveys reveal that the aggressive tightening cycle is dampening economic agents’ sentiment. Putting aside the sharp decline at the onset of the pandemic in Q2…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
Back in May, our foreign exchange team suggested the risk to sterling was to the downside. Indeed, GBP/USD is down 8% from its recent peak. While dollar strength largely explains this move in GBP/USD, there have been other…
On the surface, the slower pace of contraction in Chinese exports in September is a positive signal for global trade. The 6.2% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports was not as bad as the 8% y/y decline anticipated or…
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US…