China's CSI 300 equity index fell below its March 2020 pandemic low on Monday, bringing its loss since the February 2021 peak to -40%. Similarly, BCA Research's market-based China growth indicator – a broader…
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8,…
The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing…
Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change…
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4…
The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase…
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in…