The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the S&P 500's year-to-date rally is narrow in breadth and that the equal weighted index has erased all its year-to-date gains. This is also true in the case of the Euro Area where…
China's industrial profits delivered a positive signal over the past couple months. Total profits expanded on a year-on-year basis in both August (+17.2% y/y) and September (+11.9% y/y). Rebounding industrial profits is…
Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer…
Friday's Tokyo CPI release suggests that inflationary pressures are picking back up again in Japan. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% y/y – surprising expectations it would remain unchanged at 2.8% y/y. The ex-…
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3. Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth…
Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense,…
In a guest authorship of Section I, Doug Peta presents a synthesis of the recent views expressed in our US Investment Strategy and Bank Credit Analyst reports. Doug underscores that excess savings are unlikely to support US consumer…
