Economic Growth
Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.
President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the October…
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s NODX delivered an upside surprise on Friday.…
The latest house price data indicate that China's housing market remains weak. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities declined by 0.4% m/m in October – a faster pace of decline than the 0.3% m/m drop registered in September…
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…
The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an acceleration of a budding downtrend since…
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results corroborate…