According to Factset, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings and revenues to grow by 11.0% y/y and 5.0% y/y respectively in 2024 (an acceleration from 0.9% and 2.8% in 2023). Information technology and communications…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the South African economy is heading into a recession later this year. The South African government refrained from announcing any stimulus measures in its recent budget proposals.…
A market-cap weighted index of CE3 economies (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) returned a whopping 64% in common currency terms since its 2022 low. Polish and Hungarian equities led the rally, advancing by a respective 86% and 78% in…
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk…
Many investors have cited the 1994 tightening cycle as an example of how the Fed managed to raise rates without triggering a recession. However, the unemployment rate was 6.5% in early 1994, which meant that inflation was less of a…
BCA’s European Investment Strategy team continues to expect the German economy to trail that of the rest of Europe. Since 2020, Germany has fallen behind, with its real GDP lagging that of the broader Eurozone by 5%. The…
The US ISM Services PMI declined slightly to 52.6 in February, just below expectations of 53. Overall, the service sector continues to expand, however, the recent ISM suggests that growth is slowing down. In fact, most of the…
The market narrative continues to be dominated by the Magnificent Six, which drove both market performance and strong Q4 earnings results. While all sectors and styles have recently turned green, the rally is still mostly narrow.…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the underperformance of European assets relative to the US is due its lagging productivity, even after adjusting for sectoral compositions in their stock…
The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI improved from 50.0 to 50.3 in February, indicating that global manufacturing activity is growing again after having contracted for 18 months. Notably, new orders expanded from previously…