There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will…

  According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination…

  Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are…

  Chinese stocks are experiencing their longest rally since the country’s exit from Covid restrictions over a year ago. The MSCI Onshore and Investable indices (in USD terms) have gained 15.8% and 9.1% respectively since…

  US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in…

  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to…

  Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a…

  For the past year, relatively large downward revisions have been key features of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls reports. Friday’s release was no exception. Although it showed the magnitude of job gains beat expectations in…

  The US employment situation report sent a mixed signal on Friday. While total nonfarm payrolls rose by 275 thousand jobs in February, exceeding the 200 thousand expected, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower…