Highlights The near-term RMB outlook is entirely dictated by the movement of the dollar. We expect the CNY/USD to weaken alongside broad dollar strength, which could rekindle financial market volatility and cap the upside in Chinese…

Highlights When interest rates are ultra-low, central banks have no margin for policy error. A small loosening or tightening has the potential to produce either a stall or catastrophic turbulence. The analogy is flying a plane at high…

Highlights Global Duration: The current mix of rising government bond yields, bear-steepening yield curves and rising inflation expectations is not surprising, given reduced political uncertainty and greater perceived tolerance of…

Special Report

Highlights Muni Credit Cycle: The reading from our Municipal Health Monitor supports low Muni/Treasury yield ratios for now, but will become less supportive near the end of 2017. This is consistent with historical lags between the muni…

Special Report

Highlights It is premature to position for an equity market handoff from liquidity to growth. Cyclical sectors have overshot the mark in recent months. There is scant evidence from macro variables that cyclical sector earnings…

Highlights Recent U.S. economic data have surprised to the upside, raising the odds of a December rate hike. U.S. GDP growth is likely to accelerate further in 2017 on the back of stronger business capex, a turn in the inventory cycle…

Equities, bonds and commodities are becoming suddenly, unusually, and dangerously correlated. But it cannot last.

Keeping home price gains in check has once again become a top priority for the Chinese authorities, which casts fresh uncertainty on both China's macro policy and growth outlook. Tactically downgrade H shares and expect near term…

Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…