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Economic Growth

Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Low Growth As National People’s Congress Begins
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS PMIs was similar.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services Sends A Stagflationary Signal
The February ISM Services beat estimates, rebounding to 53.5 from 52.8. All activity subcomponents increased, with new orders and employment ticking up. Price pressures however also increased, as prices paid went up and suppliers’ delivery times…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
What Will Hold Trump Back?
In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Fed Beige Book Shows Slowing Growth, And Rising Price Pressures
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures.  The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence following the post-election…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Keep An Eye On This Inflation Chart
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are increasing. Our Price…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
ISM Manufacturing: A Stagflationary Impulse
The February ISM Manufacturing index was weaker than expected, declining to 50.3 from 50.9. New orders plunged to 48.6 from 55.1, with employment also contracting. Price pressures however increased. Prices paid and suppliers’ delivery times jumped to their…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Escaping Europe’s Liquidity Trap

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
Questions From The Road
Our US Investment strategists visited Midwest clients, and provided a summary of their discussions with investors. Despite solid data, investors should focus on where the economy is headed rather than where it has been. Excess savings have been spent,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics