Highlights Bond Bear Market: TIPS breakeven inflation rates are still below target, and this gives us high conviction that Treasury yields will increase on a cyclical horizon. If we assume that the equilibrium fed funds rate is…

Highlights Our base case outlook is unchanged. We do not see a recession in the U.S. before 2020, and the U.S. equity market could reward investors with high single-digit total returns this year and next. Nonetheless, the cycle is…

Dear Client, Alongside this week's report we are also sending you a fascinating short Special Report written by Jennifer Lacombe of our Global ETF Strategy sister service. The report, which demonstrates the use of ETF flows as a…

Highlights The global economy is slowing. However, growth should stabilize at an above-trend pace over the next few months, as fiscal policy turns more stimulative and interest rates remain in accommodative territory. President Trump…

Highlights Q1 earnings season looks robust, but trade policy is an uncertainty. Sizeable shifts in equity technicals and sentiment since the start of the year; valuation still stretched. Global growth may have peaked but fiscal,…

Highlights Trade wars have captured investors' imaginations, but slowing global growth is a more immediate risk for both asset prices and exchange rates. As reflationary forces ebb, slow global growth will help the dollar stage a…

Feature Japan's economic experience in the post bubble era is often described as a fate to avoid at all costs. We would like to turn this common notion on its head. Rather than something to avoid, Japan's post bubble…

Highlights BCA expects consumer spending to remain supportive of above-trend economic growth in the U.S. in the next few quarters. Our view is that the 2018 outlook for both the U.S. economy and corporate profits remains constructive…

Highlights Global growth has peaked, but will remain firmly above trend for the remainder of the year. The composition of global growth is shifting back towards the U.S. As often happens in the late stages of business-cycle expansions…

Dear Client, Yesterday, my colleagues Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and I had a webcast to discuss the rising threats of trade wars between the U.S. and China. If you have not listened to it yet, I encourage you to listen to it here. Best…