Highlights The 2018 dollar rally is principally the consequence of the slowdown in global industrial activity and global trade, itself a reverberation of China's efforts to de-lever and reform its economy. For China, reforms and…

Highlights Paradox 1: U.S. growth will slow, and this will force the Fed to raise rates MORE quickly. Paradox 2: China will try to stimulate its economy, and this will HURT commodities and other risk assets. Paradox 3: Global…

Highlights Many investors remain overweight equities; BCA recommends a neutral stance. Investors should position portfolios for rising rates. Fed Chair Powell weighed in last week on yield curve, the impact of the Trump…

Highlights Duration: Weakening global growth is unlikely to derail the Fed, which must also contend with mounting domestic inflationary pressures. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and only a neutral allocation to spread…

Highlights The fundamental case to buy the dollar and sell non-U.S. risk assets is currently extremely obvious. This suggests that investors likely have already placed their bets. As such, the case for a counter-trend correction…

Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…

Special Report

Highlights Global Growth: The risk to U.S. financial markets from global growth divergences and increasingly hawkish trade policy is rising, and it is unlikely to be resolved without a market riot. Credit Cycle: Valuation is expensive…

While copper prices remain comfortably within the $2.90 to $3.30/lb range they've occupied this year, the rising threat of a Sino - U.S. trade war spilling into the global trading system, along with slowing credit and monetary…

Highlights Monetary Policy: Position for rate hikes of 25 bps per quarter for the next 6-12 months and watch nominal GDP growth, cyclical spending and the price of gold for signals about the position of the fed funds rate relative to…

Highlights Global Inflation has upside on a cyclical basis, but this narrative is well known and investors have already placed their bets accordingly, buying inflation protection in a wide swath of markets. However, global growth has…