Highlights The recent dovish shift in tone from central banks around the world is here to stay this year, providing support for global growth. As a result, stock prices will benefit from a combination of easy policy and rebounding…
Highlights Chinese credit origination surpassed expectations in March. Credit growth is now clearly trending higher, and the latest data suggest that economic activity is rebounding. This bodes well for global growth. The conventional…
Highlights BCA’s China Investment Strategy team recommended that investors upgrade Chinese stocks to overweight (both investable and domestic) in a Special Alert last week. Investors had a legitimate macro fundamental basis to go…
Highlights 10-Year Yield: In this week’s report we run through different macro factors that could be used to create a macroeconomic model of the 10-year Treasury yield, and describe the current outlook for each one. On balance,…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is…
Highlights U.S. growth remains robust, despite some temporary softness in recent months. Ex U.S., growth continues to fall but, with China probably now ramping up monetary stimulus, should bottom in the second half. Central banks…
Highlights Global equities and other risk assets will trade sideways with elevated volatility over the coming weeks before grinding higher for the remainder of the year, as global growth finally accelerates after a series of false…
Highlights Driven by its fear that deflation is a more intractable danger than inflation, the Federal Reserve has enshrined its pause for the remainder of 2019 in order to lift inflation expectations. Since the U.S. business cycle…
Highlights Duration: None of the economic indicators that have reliably signaled peak interest rates in prior cycles are sending a signal at the moment. This leads to the inevitable conclusion that further Fed rate hikes are likely at…