Highlights There is little risk that inflation will heat up over the next several months, … : Weak growth is more of a threat to the global economy than inflation. … which means the Fed won’t be in any hurry to…
Highlights A few indicators suggest that global growth will soon bottom. The bottoming process could prove volatile, but the duration of the slowdown suggests a V-shaped rather than U-shaped recovery. The dollar should weaken as…
Dear Client, I will be visiting clients in Paris, Amsterdam, and London next week. In lieu of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from Matt Gertken, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Matt argues that US…
Highlights Duration: A survey of the five factors that determine the path for Treasury yields suggests that further upside is likely. We see a clear path to 2.5% for long-maturity Treasury yields as recessionary risk moves to the back…
Highlights Global: Global growth momentum is bottoming out, leading indicators are improving, inflation is subdued, and central bankers are biased to maintain accommodative monetary policies. This is a bullish “sweet spot”…
Highlights An expansion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will increase dollar liquidity. This should be negative for the greenback, barring a recession over the next six to 12 months. Interest rate differentials have…
The key question for asset allocators over coming months will be when (or, perhaps, whether) the global manufacturing cycle will turn up. This would trigger a move into more cyclically sensitive markets, for example euro zone…
Martin Barnes and I spent last week visiting clients in Hong Kong and Singapore in celebration of BCA’s 70th anniversary. Martin has been with BCA Research for 32 years and has been a keen observer of market trends for much longer…