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Economic Growth

Tariff D-Day

Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
JOLTS: Weak Labor Signals Confirm Strong Case for Duration
Labor market data continues to cool, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and above-benchmark duration stance. February job openings fell to 7.6m, below expectations. Declining quits and rising layoffs signal that labor market slack is increasing.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Bonds Are Back: Why UK Gilts Will Outshine German Bunds

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Stagflation Watch: Hot PCE, Softening Demand
February US PCE data adds to the stagflationary tone, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and tactical short in front-end rates. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m, lifting the year-on-year rate to 2.8%, matching the Fed’s 2025 projection. Headline held…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitical Outlook, Q2 2025

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Second Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Into The Abyss

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The Delinquency Paradox
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession continues to rise. With key…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Prices, Fragile Policy Mix
UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank to surprise on the dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Flash PMIs Point To Low Global Growth
The March PMIs point to a low growth buffer outside the US as uncertainty engulfs the global economy. Aggregate price pressures were contained in March, but input prices still increased in the US. While the market reaction was risk-on, with the S&P 500…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Delinquency Paradox

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance. 

US Investment Strategy by Jennifer Lacombe

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics