Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This…
Highlights Duration & The Fed: Unlike the bond market, the Fed is being intentionally cautious about how quickly it revises its interest rate expectations higher, focusing more on hard economic data than on surveys. We expect the…
Dear Client, Dhaval Joshi has started publishing the new BCA Research Counterpoint product, in which he will continue to apply his unique process to dig up original investment opportunities around the globe. I trust many of you will…
Highlights The latest “dot plot” from the Fed reaffirmed the FOMC’s intention to keep rates near zero for at least the next two years, despite evidence that the US economy will recover from the pandemic much faster…
Dear client, Next week, in lieu of our weekly report, I will be hosting a webcast on Thursday, March 25 at 10:00 am EDT and Friday March 26 at 9:00 am HKT. I look forward to your comments and questions during the webcast. Best regards…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance is not the only reason for markets to cheer. The US is booming, China is unlikely to overtighten monetary and fiscal policy, and Europe remains a source of positive political…
Highlights The report from last week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) indicates a gradual pullback in policy support this year. Fiscal thrust will be neutral in 2021, whereas the rate of credit expansion will be slightly…
Highlights Global Duration: Markets are correctly interpreting the $1.9 trillion US fiscal stimulus package as a factor justifying higher global growth expectations and bond yields. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on overall global…