Economic Growth
Highlights Economy – Following a recession like no other, American households are flush with cash: Since COVID-19 broke out last March, real disposable income has grown at its fastest 14-month rate ever, the S&P 500 is 24% above its pre-pandemic peak…
Dear Client, In this special report we are pleased to introduce Ritika Mankar, the newest Strategist to join BCA Research and Geopolitical Strategy. Ritika hails from Mumbai where she has led a distinguished career as a director at Ambit, an institutional…
Highlights Political and corporate climate activism will increase the cost of developing the resources required to produce and deliver energy going forward – e.g., oil and gas wells; pipelines; copper mines, and refineries. Over the short run, the fastest…
Highlights The Fed: The Fed will formally discuss tapering plans over the course of this summer and fall and announce the slowing of asset purchases before the end of 2021. Its labor market objectives will also be achieved in time to lift rates in 2022.…
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This clinches our long-held view that any…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over the medium- to long-term,…
Highlights Domestic and foreign supply-side constraints are now exerting a significant effect on the US economy. Consumer prices may increase at a faster pace than we initially expected over the coming 3-4 months, but supply-side constraints are likely to…
Highlights The Seventh National Population Census highlights the seriousness of China’s demographic deterioration; apart from a shrinking working-age population, the nation’s fertility and birth rates have dropped meaningfully. China’s urbanization rate…
Highlights The number one risk to our upbeat view on European economic activity and assets is a Chinese economic slowdown. The second most important risk to our view is a potential deterioration in the global credit impulse, even outside of China. The…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory, despite short-term…