Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss our view on China’s economy and financial markets. In particular, I will share our view on the announced economic…
Executive Summary The RMB And Real Interest Rates The RMB has overshot and will likely consolidate gains in the coming months. The said, the yuan remains underpinned by a current account surplus, positive real rates, and a…
Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a stagflationary shock that comes at a difficult time for developed market central banks that have been laying the groundwork…
Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Executive Summary US Treasury yields have surged in response to high US inflation and Fed tightening expectations. However, the move looks overdone in the near-term. Too many Fed hikes are now discounted for 2022, US realized…