Economic Growth
Executive Summary A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market
A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course?
The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course…
Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US has never averted a recession…
Executive Summary Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession
Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity prices and hawkish central…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds
Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth
Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth…
Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense
Expanding Military Spending…
Executive Summary Fed Chair Powell is attempting to steer the US economy between the Scylla of a recession and the Charybdis of entrenched high inflation. In the benign soft-landing outcome, the economy will continue to grow well above trend while…