Executive Summary Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession Supply-chain disruptions arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demand hits from lockdowns in Shanghai are increasing the odds of a global recession,…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth It is still possible that equities can outperform bonds over the next 12 months, but the…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
Executive Summary Fed Chair Powell is attempting to steer the US economy between the Scylla of a recession and the Charybdis of entrenched high inflation. In the benign soft-landing outcome, the economy will continue to grow well…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…