Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they…

Special Report

Global investors should sell Chinese assets on strength this year and diversify into other emerging markets. American investors should limit China exposure. Short CNY-USD.

China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil…

In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak.…

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

Special Report

This digest version of our Special Report contains its conclusion along with a high-level review of how we reached it. It is structured identically to the full document, but with less than half the word count, so a reader can swiftly…

Special Report

Workers have a cyclical wind at their backs as labor demand exceeds supply, but a wage-price spiral is no more than a remote possibility. The structural backdrop has turned significantly against them since the last bout of high…

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

Special Report

Highlights The recent decline in the US equity risk premium raises an important question for investors: are the structural risks facing the US or global stock markets higher or lower today than they were prior to the global financial…

In Section I, we note that the global growth outlook has modestly deteriorated over the past month, despite an improving 12-month outlook for Chinese domestic demand in response to the imminent end of the nation’s “dynamic zero-COVID…