The tempo of China’s and the US’s military operations is picking up sharply. The risk of a sudden, perhaps unintended, escalation of military conflict, therefore, is rising in the South China Sea. So is the risk of another shooting…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to…

The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.

Special Report

Our bullish view on commodity prices is underpinned by demand growth driven by stronger real GDP, led by EM. Threats to this view – i.e., a failed re-opening in China, stronger USD, higher real rates in the US, and continued policy…

President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds…

The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…

Special Report

In this Special Report, BCA Strategist Ritika Mankar highlights that India may prove to be a sanctuary of safety in what promises to be a volatile 2023. Indian equity outperformance could continue, as India ends up offering…

Special Report

Highlights Market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year reflect either an extremely mild US recession, or a nonrecessionary scenario in which inflation falls rapidly back toward the Fed’s target. In the case of a true…

In Section I, we explain why we do not see the deceleration in US inflation, the likely near-term pickup in European growth, and the end of China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy as signs of a sustainable rebound in global economic…