The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Russia’s presidential election of March 2024 will put pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire before that time. Putin faces his fifth…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
OPEC 2.0’s decision to cut 2mm b/d of output beginning in December telescopes the loss of Russian volumes we expect over the course of the coming year. OPEC 2.0 clearly is not playing by the G7’s or the US’s rules. This will keep…
Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…