Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that among the CE3 currencies, the zloty and the koruna will be the relative winners, while the forint will likely be the worst performer of the three. That said,…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.…
A market-cap weighted index of CE3 economies (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) returned a whopping 64% in common currency terms since its 2022 low. Polish and Hungarian equities led the rally, advancing by a respective 86% and 78% in…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly…