Will the US federal government shutdown on October 1? Congressional leaders are meeting with President Trump in the White House as we go to press. If eight Democratic senators do not vote with Republicans to pass a no-frills "…
We give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown. It probably will not happen before November. At worst, government shutdowns only cause temporary market volatility.
Our US Political Strategists give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown before November. The odds could increase after that. But the market impacts are limited. The source of the disagreement is the enhanced…
Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations.
Trump-era policy patterns are reappearing in FX, supporting a temporary bounce in the dollar. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, FX Solutions and Special Reports strategist.Chester updated his “KISS” (Keep It Simple…
Political instability will persist in France as PM François Bayrou loses the confidence vote. The nomination of a new PM will not end the country’s political paralysis and will further fuel fiscal fears. Investors should remain…
France’s renewed political turmoil highlights fiscal risks for OATs, but creates opportunities to buy French equities on dips. PM Bayrou has called a September 8 confidence vote over his deficit-cutting budget proposals,…
Our US Political Strategy team recommends staying long the US dollar, as Trump’s peak political capital drives near-term policy volatility and renewed support for US assets. Market optimism is underpinned by AI enthusiasm and…
Taiwan’s failed recall election reduces 12-month geopolitical risk for Taiwanese and Chinese equities on the margin. We are reviewing our long European industrials / short Chinese industrials trade.