Domestic Politics
President Donald Trump’s political capital is moderate, as he frontloaded his most disruptive policies within the first year.
Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated. Social unrest and government shutdown will have fleeting market implications.
Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive.
Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.
US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle.
Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will underperform on economic stimulus but outperform on defense spending and strategic diplomacy. Stay long Japanese yen.
