Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in…
Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will underperform on economic stimulus but outperform on defense spending and strategic diplomacy. Stay long Japanese yen.
The shutdown can continue into November; only when the off-year elections and/or national opinion polls put more pressure on one or both parties will compromise start to come together to reopen the government. The US federal…
French markets woke up Monday to fresh political turmoil, with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigning just 27 days into office, marking the shortest tenure in modern French history. The CAC 40 dropped over 2%, the euro slid 0.7%…
Japanese markets reacted sharply to Sanae Takaichi’s election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the frontrunner to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. The Nikkei surged 4.8% and the yen plunged nearly 2% across…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see 50% odds of a shutdown that lasts beyond three weeks. Investors continue to wonder whether the US federal government shutdown will last long enough, or involve large enough layoffs, to affect…
The October 1 partial US government shutdown risks denting near-term GDP and sentiment but should present a buying opportunity if it triggers equity weakness. The US federal government partly shutdown on October 1 after the…
President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the…