Highlights Portfolio Strategy Business sector selling price inflation is sinking like a stone following the bond market’s melting inflation expectations, at a time when wage inflation continues to expand smartly. There are good…
Overweight Within our broad-based U.S. equity sector and subsector coverage, we continue to recommend a modest gold-related hedge via being overweight the global gold mining index (given that the S&P gold index only…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy While equities will likely be higher in the coming 9-12 months, we would refrain from committing fresh capital to the market at this juncture. A better entry point lies ahead. Tactically, this market…
Highlights Asset allocation: Go long industrial commodities versus equities on a 6-month horizon. If an inflationary impulse is dominating, beaten-down industrial commodities have more upside than richly valued equities; and if a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Looming inflation, the synchronized global capex upcycle and rising real Treasury yields all argue for preferring oil-related to gold-exposed equities. Recent Changes Initiate a long S&P oil…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The easy money has already been made in the liquidity-to-growth theme-levered long S&P energy/short global gold miners pair trade. Lock in profits and move to the sidelines, for now. Similarly, book…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Execute a long S&P energy/short global gold miners pair trade to take advantage of the liquidity-to-growth handoff. Initiate another new trade, long S&P materials/short S&P utilities, to…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Food price deflation bodes well for increased volumes, and by extension, packaging stocks. Upgrade to overweight. Prospects for intensifying market and economic volatility argue for reestablishing a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Bank profits are unlikely to match those of the broad market if the Fed hikes interest rates and loan demand cools. Sell into strength. Gold shares are looking increasingly attractive, but we will…
We put the odds of an oil-production freeze agreement between OPEC and Russian officials next week in Algiers at slightly better than a coin toss.