Highlights Portfolio Strategy The selloff in the long end of the Treasury bond market and related yield curve steepening, rising loan growth and a turnaround in bank net interest margins, all signal that a durable re-rating phase is…
Our reinstated long S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P)/short global gold miners pair trade is up again near the 20% mark. This parabolic rise compels us to re-institute a 10% rolling stop in order to…
Yesterday our 10% rolling stop got triggered on the long S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P)/short global gold miners pair trade. We are compelled to reinstate this intra-commodity pair trade, despite…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We remain comfortable with a 3,000 SPX fair value estimate backed up by our DDM, forward ERP and sensitivity analyses. The path of least resistance remains higher for the SPX on a 9-12 month cyclical time…
Structural Underweight Our sixth big theme for the 2020s is a sustained deceleration of Chinese real GDP growth to a range of 4% to 2%. While this will not happen overnight, the implication is that steadily lower real GDP…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy There are high odds that China’s real GDP deceleration will continue for the next decade, casting a shadow over the profit prospects of the S&P 1500 metals & mining index. A structural below…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Gold bullion is on the move again, and falling real yields, a soft economic backdrop, a depreciating US dollar and resurgent geopolitical uncertainty, all argue for reintroducing a modest portfolio hedge…
Neutral Global gold stocks have gone parabolic over the past four months and are in desperate need of a breather (top panel). Simultaneously, were President Mario Draghi to re-commence QE in the form of sovereign and…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The contracting manufacturing sector that rekindled recession fears, the harsh reality of the Sino-American trade war weighing on profits, downbeat business confidence and mushrooming capex slowdown…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recession odds continue to tick higher, according to the NY Fed’s probability of recession model, at a time when global growth is waning, U.S. profit growth is contracting and the non-financial ex-…