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Diversified Metals & Mining

This week, our screeners explore opportunities arising from Europe’s electrification, identify high-quality Rare Earth plays, and propose a portfolio to hedge against a major global conflict.

US-China Talks: Limited Deal Possible, Structural Competition Intact…

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report. 

Copper Remains Vulnerable…

The market has been held hostage by surging rates. Zombie companies are “alive” and are multiplying – they are highly sensitive to surging borrowing costs. Underweight Utilities to reduce portfolio duration. Maintain neutral positioning of Basic Materials but take a granular approach to allocations within the sector.

Today we upgrade the S&P Metals & Mining industry from underweight to neutral: This industry is one of the few beneficiaries of the war in Ukraine, as the military action and global sanctions take offline copious amounts of metals produced by Russia and Ukraine. It also enjoys increased…
Highlights The bond market assumes that when recent inflation has been high, it will be higher than average for the next ten years. Yet the reality is the exact opposite. High inflation is followed by lower than average inflation. This means that the ex-post real yield delivered by 10-year T-…
In yesterday’s Special Report, we initiated a long S&P oil & gas exploration & production / short S&P metals & mining market neutral trade as a way to capitalize on the China/DM growth differential on a 6 to 12-month time horizon. This trade is also a way to express our view…
The economic reopening has been an underlying theme throughout most of our research since last September that has allowed us, among other things, to harvest handsome gains from our long “Back-To-Work”/short “COVID-19 Winners” baskets pair trades to the tune of 42%. While in our research we…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over the medium- to long-term, the lack of major new greenfield capex…