Highlights Domestic and foreign supply-side constraints are now exerting a significant effect on the US economy. Consumer prices may increase at a faster pace than we initially expected over the coming 3-4 months, but supply-side…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
Highlights The reason to own stocks is not profit growth. The combination of unspectacular sales growth and down-trending profit margins means that global profit growth will be lacklustre, at best. The reason to own stocks is that the…
Chart 1Chart 1 Not only did the pandemic claim millions of human lives and cause irreparable suffering, but it also permanently damaged a number of macro series and indicators, some of which we highlight in today’s Sector…
Highlights US growth has likely peaked. Economic momentum will slow over the coming quarters as the tailwind from stimulus fades and the vaccination campaign winds down. Historically, a slowdown in US growth, as proxied by a decline…
Highlights Over the 2021-22 period, renewable capacity will account for 90% of global electricity-generation additions, per the IEA's latest forecast. This will follow the 45% surge (y/y) in renewable generation capacity added last…
Highlights The US is only one deflationary shock away from a European level of bond yields. On a multi-year horizon, a deflationary shock is a near-certainty. The shock will be deflationary, because even if it starts inflationary, it…
Highlights US natural gas prices will remain well supported over the April-October injection season, as the global economic expansion gains traction, particularly in Europe, which also is refilling depleted storage levels. China's…
Not so long ago, we added an 18% trailing stop to our Millennials Basket cyclical overweight that has a heavy tech exposure, and recent price action pushed this share price ratio close to our stop. We decided not to fight the…
Highlights Massive slack in the US labour market means that the current uplift in US inflation is highly likely to fade by the end of the year. On a long-term horizon, investors should own US T-bonds. Equity investors should fade the…