Relative growth and inflation trends point to a narrower UST/Bund spread. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, Global Fixed Income Strategist. This week, our rates strategists introduced a new US/Euro Area Relative…
Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which…
ISM Services data confirm slowing growth and cooling inflation, reinforcing a defensive allocation stance. The index rose slightly to 50.8 in June from 49.9 in May, with new orders rebounding into expansion at 51.3. However, the…
Our Geopolitical strategists warn that structural and cyclical risks remain elevated despite a fading threat of acute shocks, and recommend booking profits ahead of tariffs and weaker data. President Trump is passing his signature…
Stronger-than-expected June payrolls rule out a July Fed cut, but the report does not derail the case for long duration and curve steepeners. Nonfarm payrolls printed at 147k, with the two prior months revised up by 16k, leaving the…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists expect lower interest rates to revive a sluggish US economy, prompting upgrades to duration and equities. Although not in recession, the US is enduring one of the weakest non-recessionary years…
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%,…
May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to 3.3m and layoffs fell to 1.6m.…
The June ISM points to sluggish US manufacturing and reinforces long duration positioning amid peaking price pressures. The index rose modestly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, with the rebound driven by slightly higher production and…