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Developed Countries

ECB To Ease More Aggressively Next Year
Preliminary estimates suggest that Eurozone headline and core CPI inflation decelerated from 2.2% to 1.8% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.7%, respectively, in September. The inflation data from individual Euro Area countries earlier last week had already prompted…
Daily Insights
ISM Manufacturing PMI Extends Contraction Streak
The ISM manufacturing PMI remained constant in September at 47.2, against expectations of a slower pace of decline and extending a six-month contraction streak. Measures of production and domestic demand decelerated at a notably slower pace while foreign…
Daily Insights
September In Review
The Fed embarked on a new easing cycle with a bang and China delivered its largest stimulus since 2015, leading to a strengthening in the risk-on soft-landing narrative in September. Chinese and EM equities led the pack. We highlighted that Beijing’s…
Daily Insights
Iran Is Not As Restrained As Advertised
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the Biden administration’s outreach to Iran will fail. The war in the Middle East has expanded as our colleagues predicted: Israel attacked Lebanon. Now Iran is likely to intervene, not because…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Savior Or Forewarning?

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Revisiting The Nifty Fifty

The Nifty Fifty bull market of the early seventies was a mania in which investors got carried away chasing after a subset of prized growth stocks. While we do not think the Magnificent Seven stocks are in a bubble, they do have some parallels with the growth stars of 50 years ago.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Durable Goods Stagnate In August
Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable goods grew a robust 0.5%. …
Daily Insights
The Eurozone’s Bright Spots
  The Eurozone’s Bright Spots …
Daily Insights
Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration
US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…
Daily Insights
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Fourth Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Soft Landing Or Quicksand?

After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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