Developed Countries

Special Report

Dear Client, There will be no Weekly Report on August 10, as the US Equity Strategy team will be on vacation for the week. Our regular publication schedule will resume on Monday August 17, 2020 with a Special Report by my colleague Chester Ntonifor, BCA’s Chief FX Strategist on the interplay of the style bias and the US Dollar. We trust that you will find this Report both informative and insightful. Kind Regards, Anastasios Feature Before getting to our analysis on why cyclicals will best defensives, we want to address our definition of cyclicals and defensives, where we think tech stands and why, discuss what our current positioning is and what time horizon we are targeting for this portfolio bent. Cyclicals And Defensives Definition Table 1 is a stripped down version of our current recommendations table and shows that our cyclicals definition is one of deep cyclicals including industrials, materials, energy and the information technology sector. Utilities, consumer staples, health care and telecom services (which is currently categorized as a GICS2) comprise our defensives universe. Table 1US Equity Strategy's Cyclicals Vs. Defensives Current Recommendations Tech Is Still Cyclical Importantly, we still consider the tech sector a deep cyclical and not a safe haven sector. While the COVID-19 fallout has acted as an accelerant especially to a faster absorption of goods and services of the tech titans, that is not a de facto change in the behavior of these still cyclical stocks.  As a reminder tech stocks have 60% export exposure or 20 percentage points higher than the broad market. The implication is that US tech trends should follow the ebbs and flows of the global economy. Contrary to popular belief that technology equities behaved defensively recently, empirical evidence gives credence to our hypothesis that technology stocks remain cyclical: from the Feb 19 SPX peak until the March trough the IT sector underperformed all four defensive sectors (Chart of the Week). In marked contrast, tech has left in the dust defensive sectors since the March bottom, cementing its cyclical status. Chart of the WeekTech Remains A Cyclical Sector Current Positioning With regard to our broader technology positioning, we are currently neutral the S&P tech sector, overweight the S&P internet retail index (which Amazon dominates) that sits under the S&P consumer discretionary sector and underweight the S&P interactive media & services index (which includes Alphabet and Facebook) that falls under the newly formed S&P communications services sector. Thus, our broadly defined tech sector exposure remains neutral. Meanwhile, last week we boosted the S&P materials sector to overweight and that move pushed our cyclicals/defensives bent marginally to preferring deep cyclicals to defensives (please see market cap weights in Table 1). Timing Is Key This portfolio bent may run into some near-term trouble as we expect a flare up of (geo)political risks (please see here and here), but once the election uncertainty lifts, hopefully in late-November/early-December, from that point onward and on a 9-12 month time horizon cyclicals should really start to flex their muscles versus defensives.  The purpose of this Special Report is to identify the top ten drivers of the looming cyclicals versus defensives outperformance phase on a cyclical time horizon. What follows is one page one chart per key reason, in no particular order of importance. 1.)    Dollar The Reflator Time and again we have highlighted the boost that internationally exposed sectors get from a weakening greenback. Cyclicals are the primary beneficiaries of such a backdrop as a lot of these deep cyclical companies garner over 50% of their sales from abroad. We recently updated in a Special Report the breakdown of GICS1 sectors’ foreign sourced revenues and more importantly their performance during US dollar bear markets. Cyclicals clearly have the upper hand. Chart 1 shows this tight inverse correlation, irrespective of what USD index we use. Finally, looking ahead a falling greenback will act as a relative profit reflator (US dollar shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 1), especially given that most of the defensive sectors are landlocked in the US and do not get a P&L fillip from positive translation gains. Chart 1CHART 1 2.)    Global Growth Recovery Not only does the debasing of the US dollar bode well for Income Statement (I/S) relative translation gains, but also serves as a tonic to global growth. In other words, a final demand recovery is in the works on the back of a pending virtuous cycle: a depreciating dollar lifts global growth, and an increase in trade brings more US dollars in circulation further weakening the greenback (top panel, Chart 2). Our Global Trade Activity Indicator also corroborates the USD message and underscores a global growth recovery into 2021 (second panel, Chart 2). Tack on the meteoric rise in the G10 economic surprise index (third panel, Chart 2) and factors are falling into place for a synchronized global economic recovery including a V-shaped US rebound from the depths of the recession in Q2 (ISM manufacturing survey shown advanced, bottom panel, Chart 2). Chart 2CHART 2 3.)    US Capex To The Rescue The latest GDP report made for grim reading. US capex collapsed 27% last quarter in line with the fall it suffered in Q1/2009. Not even bulletproof software investment escaped unscathed and contracted for the first time in seven years, albeit modestly. However, if the looming recovery resembles the GFC episode when real non-residential investment soared 40 percentage points from that nadir in the subsequent five quarters, then a slingshot rebound will ensue by the end of 2021. Importantly, our US capex indicator has an excellent track record in leading the relative share price ratio and confirms that a capex trough is already in store, tracing out the bottom hit during the Great Recession (top panel, Chart 3). Regional Fed surveys also signal that a capex boom looms in the coming quarters (middle panel, Chart 3). And, so do cheery CEOs that expect a sizable investment recovery in the next six months, according to the Conference Board survey (bottom panel, Chart 3). All of this is a harbinger of a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives. Chart 3CHART 3 4.)   Chinese Capex On The Upswing (Fiscal Easing) Across the pacific, Chinese excavator sales have gone vertical. While we take Chinese data with a grain of salt, Komatsu hydraulic excavator demand growth in China has averaged 45% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter ending in June. This Japanese company’s data, which has been unaffected by the US/Sino trade war, corroborates the Chinese official statistics (top panel, Chart 4). Infrastructure spending is also on the rise in China following an abrupt halt in projects started early in 2020. This revving of the investment spending engine is bullish for the broad commodity complex including US cyclicals (bottom panel, Chart 4). Chart 4CHART 4 5.) Chinese Monetary Easing None of the above investment recovery would have been possible had the Chinese authorities not opened up the liquidity spigots. Monetary easing via the sinking reserve-requirement-ratio (RRR) has been instrumental in engineering an economic rebound (RRR shown inverted, third panel, Chart 5). The credit-easing channel has been also important in funneling cash toward investment, and the climbing Li Keqiang index is evidence that sloshing liquidity is being put to good use (bottom & second panels, Chart 5). Finally, Chinese loan demand data also confirms that an economic recovery is in the offing and heralds a US cyclicals versus defensives portfolio tilt (top panel, Chart 5).  Chart 5CHART 5 6.)   Firming Financial Market Data (Chinese And EM Equity Market Outperformance) Typically, financial market data are early in sniffing out a turn in economic data. This anticipatory nature of financial markets is currently signaling that EM in general and Chinese economic growth in particular will make a significant comeback in the coming quarters. Importantly, Chinese bourses and the MSCI EM equity index (in USD) have recently started to outperform the ACWI and the SPX (Chart 6). Both of these equity markets are more cyclically exposed than the defensive US and global indexes because of the respective sector composition and have paved the way for a sustainable rise in the US cyclicals/defensives share price ratio (Chart 6).   Chart 6CHART 6 7.)    Transition From Deflation To Inflation Similarly to the EM and Chinese equity market outperformance of their DM peers, commodity prices are putting in a bottom and forecasting a brighter global trade backdrop for the rest of the year (top panel, Chart 7). The depreciating US dollar is also underpinning the commodity complex and this should serve as a catalyst for an exit from the recent global disinflationary backdrop, especially corporate wholesale price deflation. Domestically, the prices paid subcomponent of the ISM manufacturing survey is firming and projecting that relative pricing power will favor cyclicals versus defensives (bottom panel, Chart 7). Chart 7CHART 7 8.)   Profit Expectations Have Turned The Corner Sell-side extreme pessimism has given way to mild optimism as depicted by the now positive relative Net Earnings Revisions (NER) ratio (third panel, Chart 8).  Importantly, despite the spike in the relative NER ratio, the bar has not risen enough both on a relative profit growth and revenue growth basis in order to short circuit the recovery in the relative share price ratio (second & bottom panels, Chart 8).  Chart 8CHART 8 9.)   Alluring Valuations The relative Valuation Indicator remains below the neutral zone offering a cushion to investors that are contending to execute a cyclicals versus defensives portfolio bent (Chart 9).   Chart 9CHART 9 10.) Enticing Technicals Lastly, cyclicals are still unloved compared with defensives as our relative Technical Indicator (TI) highlights in Chart 10.  In fact, our relative TI also hovers below the neutral zone, near a level that has marked previous playable recovery rallies (bottom panel, Chart 10). Chart 10CHART 10     But Monitor Three Key Risks Over the coming 12 to 18 months, investors should prepare their portfolios for an outperformance phase of cyclical sectors relative to defensives. Nonetheless, we are closely monitoring a number of key risks that can put our view offside. First, the relentless rise of ex-Vice President Biden in the polls on PREDICTIT, the rapidly increasing probability of a “Blue Sweep” in the upcoming elections, and the non-negligible risk of a contested election (as discussed in a joined Special Report with our sister Geopolitical Strategy service last week), all pose a short-term threat to the benign election backdrop priced into stocks. Were a risk-off phase to materialize in the next three months, as we expect, then cyclicals would take the back seat versus defensives, at least temporarily (bottom panel, Chart 11). Second, what worries us most is that Dr. Copper and crude oil (another global growth barometer), especially compared with gold, have yet to confirm the global growth recovery. In other words, the fleeting oil-to-gold and copper-to-gold ratios underscore that the liquidity-to-growth handoff has gone on hiatus. While we are not ready to throw in the towel yet, these relative commodity signals are disconcerting, and were they to deteriorate further, they would definitely undermine our optimistic view on global growth (top and second panels, Chart 11). Finally, it is disquieting that our relative profit growth models have no pulse. They represent a significant risk to the relative earnings-led rebound which the rest of the indicators we track are anticipating (third panel, Chart 11). Chart 11Three Key Risks We Are Monitoring Bottom Line: On balance, a looming global growth recovery and pending global capex upcycle, a softening US dollar, commodity price inflation and Chinese monetary easing will more than offset the trifecta of rising election-related risks, the current unresponsiveness of our relative profit growth models and the lack of confirmation of a liquidity-to-growth transition. This will pave the way for a cyclicals outperformance phase at the expense of defensives.     Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com  

  Markets have shrugged off the rise in COVID-19 cases in the US and new clusters in other places such as Spain, Hong Kong, Melbourne, and Tokyo (Chart 1). The MSCI All-Country World Index is now only 4% off its all-time high in February. We don’t see the markets ignoring reality for much longer. Economic activity remains very subdued (Chart 2), which will eventually cause a significant rise in bankruptcies and problems for banks. Nevertheless, the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus will be increased further in coming weeks, which should prevent a big shift towards pessimism for a while. The crunch time will come in the northern-hemisphere winter, when COVID cases in North America and Europe are likely to rise sharply again. Risk assets at their current levels are not pricing in those risks. Recommended Allocation   Chart 1COVID Cases Are Still On The Rise Chart 2Activity Remains Subdued Markets are driven by the second derivative of growth. It is not surprising, then, that equities began to rally in March, exactly when economic data stopped deteriorating, even though it remained atrocious (Chart 3). Real interest rates have also continued to fall, even as risk assets rallied; this further fueled the rally, since the theoretical value of equities rises as the rate at which they are discounted falls (Chart 4). Chart 3Data Stopped Deteriorating In March Chart 4Real Interest Rates Have Continued To Fall But the question now is: Can the data continue to improve? PMIs will fall back towards 50, and economic releases are unlikely to surprise so strongly on the upside. In the US, as a result of the rise in COVID-19 cases and renewed (albeit mostly moderate) government restrictions on activity, consumer confidence has started to weaken again and initial unemployment claims to pick up (Charts 5 and 6). Even though the Fed will remain ultra-dovish, real rates will not fall much further from their current level, which is the lowest since TIPS started trading in the late 1990s. Chart 5Consumer Confidence Is Weakening Again Chart 6The Jobs Market Has Stopped Improving Chart 7Will Money Supply Growth Peak? Money supply growth has grown rapidly, as a result of the increase in central-bank balance-sheets and the rush of companies to borrow to shore up their cash positions (Chart 7). The increase in excess liquidity has also been a force behind the rise in risk assets. But money supply growth is likely to slow from now. At least partly offsetting these risks will be further fiscal stimulus. BCA Research’s Geopolitical strategists see Congress approving a big new package of around $2.5 trillion, mainly because of widespread popular support for an extension of more generous unemployment benefits (Table 1). Agreement should come before the scheduled recess on August 10 (if it doesn’t, this would trigger a market selloff). The recent agreement between European Union leaders on a EUR750 billion fiscal package was a major breakthrough, since it represented joint borrowing backed by the rich northern European countries to provide transfers to the poorer periphery. Table 1There Is Much Public Support For Fiscal Stimulus Further upside may come as the many investors who have missed the rally since March capitulate and buy risk assets. Investor sentiment is currently unusually polarized. Speculative individuals and hedge funds are very bullish (Chart 8). But more conservative pension funds, wealth managers, and individual investors, mostly remain cautious, as evidenced by the AAII weekly survey, in which many more investors say they expect the stock market to fall over the next six months than to rise (Chart 9). Cash levels remain high by historical standards (Chart 10). Although only a minority of investors turned positive in March, a recent academic study demonstrated how hedge funds and small active institutions have a disproportionate influence on price movements (Chart 11). A downside risk, then, would be if these investors decided to take profits or turned more bearish. Chart 8Hedge Funds Are Bullish... Chart 9...But Retail Investors Very Cautious Chart 10Cash Holdings Remain Elevated Chart 11Some Smaller Investors Have A Big Impact We have argued, since the pandemic began, that investors should not take high-conviction bets in such an uncertain environment. They should, rather, design portfolios which are robust under various scenarios. After the 43% rise in global equities since March, we cannot recommend an above-benchmark weighting, since downside risks are not priced in. We remain neutral on global equities. However, fixed-income instruments look even more unattractive at the current low level of rates; we remain underweight. We recommend hedging via a large overweight in cash, which leaves dry powder for when a better buying opportunity arises. Currencies: A key (as always) to the macro view is what happens to the US dollar. Many of the drivers of the dollar – interest-rate differentials, valuation, momentum, and relative money-supply growth – point to it weakening further (Chart 12). The trade-weighted dollar is already off 9% from its March peak. We turned bearish on the USD in our Quarterly published at the beginning of July. It is too early, however, to declare that the dollar bull market, which began in 2012, is definitely over. Chart 12Dollar Indicators Are Bearish... Chart 13…But Short USD Is Now A Consensus A new downturn in the global economy would push the dollar back up again, since it is a safe-haven currency. Shorting the dollar, especially against the euro, is now a consensus position, and so a near-term reversal is quite likely (Chart 13). But, over the next 12-18 months, a move above 1.22 for the euro and towards 100 for the yen is possible. We will continue to analyze whether the dollar could be entering a bear market, since this would necessarily make us more structurally positive on commodities and emerging markets. Equities: A pickup in global growth and a weakening US dollar might prove positive for cyclicals and value stocks in the long run, which would cause European and EM equities to outperform. Given the current uncertainty, however, we cannot recommend that stance and therefore continue to prefer “growth defensives” such as Health Care and Technology, which implies an overweight on the overall US market. Valuations in the Health Care sector remain attractive (Chart 14). Companies in the (broadly defined) Tech sector are beneficiaries of the pandemic, generally have robust balance-sheets, and should continue to see strong earnings growth for some years. And, while Technology is clearly expensive, valuations are still nowhere as excessive as in 2000 (Chart 15). For Tech to crash would require either that it go ex-growth, or that there is significant regulatory action. Chart 14Health Care Still Attractively Valued Chart 15Tech Still Way Below Bubble Levels Chart 16Europe No Longer So Dominated By Financials Neither of these seems likely for now. Euro zone equities are less dominated than they were by Financials, but remain more cyclical than the US, with very few internet-related names (Chart 16).   Fixed Income: Central banks will remain very dovish and, as Fed chair Jerome Powell has emphasized, are not even thinking about thinking about tightening policy. This suggests that nominal rates will rise only moderately, even if growth continues to pick up. The Fed still has plenty of room to ease further if needed, since the programs it rolled out in March have barely been taken up yet (Table 2). We thus recommend a neutral position on duration. We find TIPS attractive as a hedge against an eventual spike in inflation. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate implied in TIPS remains around 100 basis points below being compatible with the Fed achieving its 2% PCE inflation target in the long run (Chart 17). The announcement in September of the results of the Fed’s 18-month review of its policy framework, which is likely to intensify its efforts to achieve the inflation target, could push breakevens up a bit further. In credit, we continue to recommend buying whatever central banks are buying, mostly investment-grade corporate bonds and the top end of the US junk bond market. Though spreads have fallen a long way, they are still well above end-2019 levels, and look attractive in a world of such low government bond yields (Chart 18). Table 2Usage Of The 2020 Federal Reserve Emergency Lending Facilities Chart 17TIPS Still Pricing Low Inflation For A Decade Chart 18Credit Spreads Could Fall Further Commodities: The weakening US dollar and continued expansion of Chinese stimulus (Chart 19) should be positive for industrial metals prices over the next six to nine months. Oil prices also have some further upside, since the OPEC 2.0 agreement to restrict supply is being adhered to, and demand will gradually pick up (although air travel will remain depressed, more commuters are using their cars as they avoid public transport). BCA Research’s Energy Service forecasts Brent crude to average $44 in the second half of this year, and $65 in 2021 (up from the current $43). Gold has already run up a lot and is now close to a record high price in real terms, with sentiment very optimistic (Chart 20). Chart 19China Stimulus Positive For Metals Nonetheless, in an environment of very low real rates, it represents a good hedge against extreme tail risks, and therefore we continue to recommend a moderate position as an insurance. Chart 20Gold Looking Rather Toppish Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com Recommended Asset Allocation  

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of July 31, 2020.  The model has not made any meaningful adjustment to the top overweight countries with the top four remaining the US, Spain, Australia, and Sweden. Within the underweight countries, however, the UK has dropped out of the top four, replaced by Germany. Japan, France, and Switzerland remain in the top 4 underweight countries, as shown in Table 1.  Table 1Model Allocation Vs. Benchmark Weights As shown in Table 2 and Charts 1, 2 and 3, the overall model outperformed the MSCI World benchmark by 73 bps in July, with positive contributions from both the Level 1 and the Level 2 models. The Level 2 model outperformed its benchmark by 176 bps, thanks largely to the underweight in Japan and the UK, as well as the overweight in Sweden. The Level 1 model outperformed by 27 bps due to the large overweight in the US. Since going live, the overall model has outperformed its MSCI World benchmark by 390 bps, with 714 bps of outperformance from the Level 2 model, and 74 bps of outperformance from the Level 1 model. Table 2Performance (Total Returns In USD %) Chart 1GAA DM Model Vs. MSCI World Chart 2GAA US Vs. Non US Model (Level 1)   Chart 3GAA Non US Model (Level 2) GAA Equity Sector Selection Model The GAA Equity Sector Model (Chart 4) is updated as of July 31, 2020. The model’s relative tilts between cyclicals and defensives did not change compared to last month. The model continues to maintain its cyclical stance driven by an improvement in its global growth proxy and remains exposed to cyclical sectors. Over the past month, the model outperformed its benchmark by 32 basis points. Year-to-date, the model has outperformed its benchmark by 144 basis points, and 149 basis points since inception. Chart 4Overall Model Performance Table 3Overall Model Performance The model’s global growth proxy improved – driven by appreciating EM currencies and rising metal prices, and therefore continues to remain positive on cyclical sectors. Global monetary easing and low rates should keep the liquidity component favoring a mixed bag of cyclical and defensive sectors. The valuation component remains muted across all sectors except Energy. However, multiple sectors continue to be near the expensive and cheap zones – mainly Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary (expensive), and Real Estate and Consumer Staples (cheap). The model awaits confirming momentum signals to change recommendations for those sectors. Table 4Current Model Allocations The model is now overweight four cyclical sectors in total. These are Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Materials. For more details on the model, please see the Special Report “Introducing the GAA Equity Sector Selection Model”, dated July 27, 2016, as well as the Sector Selection Model section in the Special Alert “GAA Quant Model Updates”, dated March 1, 2019 available at https://gaa.bcaresearch.com.   Xiaoli Tang Associate Vice President xiaoliT@bcaresearch.com Amr Hanafy Senior Analyst amrh@bcaresearch.com    

Special Report

Highlights The housing market is tight, but not undersupplied, as the construction of new homes has kept up with the pace of household formation. Demand for homes should remain well supported as household formation has room to increase and the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced crisis. But existing barriers to new home construction persist and the economic recovery will help hold down residential mortgage defaults and prevent a wave of listings by desperate sellers. As such, home prices have scope to remain well-bid. Feature US home prices keep grinding higher despite the most severe recession since the Great Depression. In a May Special Report1 entitled “Housing In The Time Of COVID-19”, we highlighted that the initial uptick in home prices was spurred by housing supply falling faster than housing demand. Lockdowns and strict social distancing measures halted the construction of new homes and prompted sellers of existing homes to de-list their properties, thus immediately curbing the supply of homes for sale. Meanwhile, the mortgage forbearance allowed under the CARES Act prevented a wave of defaults and mass property listings by desperate sellers and low interest rates and generous fiscal transfers supported demand. Since then, economic activity has been recovering at a faster pace than widely anticipated and mortgage applications have eclipsed pre-pandemic highs. Yet, building permits and housing starts still have ample room to catch up. Are we heading towards a dearth of housing supply? Tight Or Undersupplied? Most real estate agents would claim that the biggest challenge they have had to face in the past few years was developing a new listing pipeline given low levels of new construction relative to history. The economic data confirms this observation: the inventory of homes for sale, as well as the share of homes currently sitting vacant, both stand at record lows (Chart 1). A rising pool of potential buyers and record-low interest rates make for lost commission opportunity amid this weak supply backdrop. Chart 1A Tight Housing Market All that one can infer from these observations, however, is that the housing market is currently a sellers’ market. Only the assessment of the underlying driver of long-term housing demand – household formations – can determine whether the overall housing market is over or undersupplied. Chart 2The Pre-GFC Extended Period Of Construction Excesses Was An Exception Rather Than The Norm There have been four2 extended phases of gains in new home prices since the 1970s (Chart 2). The longest one extended for 14 years from 1992 to 2006 but was also the slowest on a compound annual growth rate basis (CAGR). Nine million building permits were issued over the 103-month span of the most recent phase, a permit-per-month pace that was just two-thirds of the average pace of the preceding three phases (Table 1). Although a declining number of permits issued confirms the on-the-ground observations detailed above, the rate of household formation in the past decade was much slower than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. Table 1The Last Four Phases Of New Home Prices Gains Put In Perspective The number of permits adjusted for household formation shows that the housing cycle that culminated in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was marked by excessive construction. During that time, 1.4 building permits were issued for every new household formed. Conversely, in the other three new home price appreciation phases over the last 50 years, that ratio nears one-to-one. An alternative analysis using the number of housing starts instead of housing permits would yield similar results. Therefore, construction has been in line with the growth of new households formed in the latest cycle. As such, the market is not undersupplied. Drivers Of Household Formation Household formation is largely demographic-driven over the long term as today’s population growth trends will only be reflected in household growth a couple of decades down the line, when the newborn population reaches adulthood. Over a shorter horizon, household formation is mostly driven by the economic health of population cohorts in their 20s and 30s. Ample research has shown that today's younger generations have pushed marriage and homeownership to their 30s. Widely accepted reasons include lifestyle changes as well as a relatively more precarious financial situation, which is leading younger individuals to require several more years of income and savings to achieve preceding generations’ level of wealth. The positive takeaway for household formation and housing demand is that today’s 20-something cohorts will likely strike out on their own in the coming years as their financial situations improve. They are not a lost generation of household heads and homeowners, just a delayed one. The pool of young individuals still living at home and the economic recovery constitute a pocket of future household formation, which is the underlying driver of housing demand. We have shown in previous research that 25-34 year olds' financial situation has been improving. They have driven the bulk of the uptick in the homeownership rate and in mortgage applications. As a result, growth in the share of young adults living at home has started to decrease (Chart 3). The economic recovery should sustain this trend. Moreover, a growing pool of individuals aged 20-25 constitutes a pocket of future household formation (Chart 4). Overall, the number of households has room to increase at a healthy rate. Chart 3Improving Financial Situation Among Younger Individuals To Support Household Formation Chart 4A Growing Pocket Of Future Near-Term Housing Demand Decreasing Supply Elasticity Conversely, some obstacles are now standing in the way of additional new-home supply. After the decade of over-construction that preceded the 2008 housing crisis, evidence shows that homebuilders have been operating with caution and restraint ever since. Chart 5Banks Are Shifting Away From Relatively Riskier Construction Loans Researchers at the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Oslo Metropolitan University3 have examined how various degrees of supply elasticity explain the dispersion in home prices across the United States. Supply elasticity measures the extent to which changes in home prices drive new construction. The research paper sheds light on a generalized nationwide trend towards declining supply elasticity. Constrained access to credit partly explains homebuilders’ restraint. Bank lending practices have been relatively muted since the GFC. Lending over the past expansion grew at a markedly slower pace than it did in any other postwar expansion.4 The composition of banks’ balance sheets also reflects more conservative lending behaviors. Their loan books have increasingly shifted away from construction5 loans towards relatively safer multi-family mortgages (Chart 5). Rising construction costs are also likely reducing the number of viable construction projects. In March 2018, the Trump administration announced tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum. The construction sector accounts for half of the global demand for steel and the US is the largest net importer. The price of lumber has increased 125% since March. A crackdown on immigration under the current administration is also contributing to rising labor costs, in an environment where homebuilders have reported that skilled labor availability issues persist. Supply has been constrained over the latest cycle…and we do not expect these supply headwinds to abate any time soon. Our colleagues at BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy remark that by highlighting the risks of globalization and border insecurity, the COVID-19 crisis is reinforcing two of Trump’s major policy themes: tighter borders and a renaissance in domestic manufacturing activity. They also note that immigration policy first started tightening under the Obama administration (Chart 6). Although a potential Biden administration might view immigration more favorably, the highly polarized US political climate and the need to address populist grievances will limit immigration even if the Democrats gain control of both the Senate and the White House. Chart 6US Will Tighten Immigration Laws One Way Or Another Chart 7Increasing Market Share Amongst The Largest Homebuilders An increase in land use regulation may also be stifling homebuilders. A recent NBER research paper6 reports that the level of regulation has generally increased between 2006 and 2018. Moreover, the concentration of big players within the homebuilding sector has increased. The share of total single-family completion by the 50 largest US homebuilders has grown from 24% to 35% between 2000 and 2019 (Chart 7). A higher concentration allows homebuilders to better navigate an increasingly regulated housing market, but it also decreases competition. Empirical evidence shows that firms with high market power may be incentivized to reduce output if doing so contributes to product scarcity, high sale prices and increased profits. On the demand side, so called NIMBYism (Not-In-My-BackYard) may also represent a headwind to additional new construction. The Bank of England, Norges Bank and Oslo Metropolitan University research paper notes that supply elasticity has decreased by a wider margin in states where home prices suffered most in the housing crisis. There is sound basis to hypothesize that since 2008, homeowners have become increasingly focused on maintaining the value of their properties by opposing new development projects. Towards A Supply Squeeze? Chart 8Current And Prospective Homeowners Taking Advantage Of Record-Low Mortgage Rates We do not expect the major supply headwinds to abate any time soon. Bank lending standards may ease at the margin as the economy recovers and some of the uncertainty about the credit outlook abates, but stricter bank regulation and more conservative lending standards should prevent a repeat of the subprime era’s construction excesses. Our geopolitical strategists have noted that a Democratic White House and Senate will likely maintain the pressure on China. As such, there is no assurance that tariffs on imported commodities would be reversed in the event of a Democratic sweep. We expect that the apex of globalization and pockets of inflationary pressure from COVID-19 supply disruptions will keep homebuilders’ input costs elevated. Demand has upside, though. It is already holding up well amid the current recession thanks to record-low mortgage rates and fiscal and monetary policy makers’ emergency efforts. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3% for the first time in July. Mortgage lenders have reported increased backlogs due to the surging number of mortgage and refinancing applications (Chart 8), and mortgage rates may be headed lower once lenders are convinced that increased demand is sustainable. The extension of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facilities through the end of the year, announced last week, should help the economy at the margin. As long as Congress extends fiscal aid, policy makers’ efforts will help sustain the demand for homes and fears of a wave of mortgage defaults and distressed home sales one would expect in a severe recession will not materialize. Putting It All Together If demand remains well supported while the supply of new and existing homes remains muted, home prices do not have much room to decline. In our housing Special Report from May, we had hypothesized that the technical feasibility and increased acceptance of working remotely might lift suburban and satellite city home demand. There is early evidence of this phenomenon taking place in cramped and richly priced housing markets like San Francisco and New York. Moreover, the NAHB not only reported a stellar recovery to pre-pandemic levels in homebuilder sentiment in June and July but also an “increasing demand for families seeking single-family homes in inner and outer suburbs that feature lower density neighborhoods.” It saw improving new home demand “in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead”. Whether the pandemic will result in a material exodus from large cities is still up in the air. It remains to be seen whether remote working flexibility will recede as the pandemic weakens. Both employers and employees may favor part-time remote working arrangements, as suggested by many surveys, which would still warrant having a pied à terre within commuting distance from one’s workplace. Large metropolitan cities also remain attractive for reasons outside of one’s occupation, such as tourism or access to entertainment and leisure. Downward pressure on rents in large metropolitan areas might be more likely than an outright exodus from the city. Current renters and prospective first-time homeowners might want to take advantage of low mortgage rates and the ability to move further out from one’s workplace (though still within commuting distance) thanks to part-time work-from-home arrangements.   Jennifer Lacombe Associate Editor JenniferL@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see BCA Research US Investment Strategy Special Report, "Housing In The Time Of COVID-19", dated May 18, 2020, available at usis.bcaresearch.com. 2 The real new home median sale price series goes back to 1963. We have identified four new home prices expansions starting from the first apparent bottom reached in December 1970 (Chart 2, first panel). 3 "The declining elasticity of US housing supply", Knut Aastveit, Bruno Albuquerque, Andre Kallak Anundsen, published 25 February 2020. 4 Please see BCA Research US Investment Strategy Special Report, "How Vulnerable Are US Banks? Part 2: It’s Complicated", dated April 6, 2020, available at usis.bcaresearch.com. 5 Construction loans are typically the most volatile and risky category of commercial real estate loans. Risks stem from frequent delays and sometimes the cancellation of construction projects. Loan delinquencies and defaults are common due to the cycle of booms and busts inherent to the construction industry. 6 Gyourko, J., Hartley, J., & Krimmel, J. (2019). The Local Residential Land Use Regulatory Environment Across U.S. Housing Markets: Evidence from a New Wharton Index. (No. w26573). National Bureau of Economic Research.