Developed Countries
Flash PMIs for November extended recent global growth trends. US growth is holding up despite an ailing manufacturing sector, while the rest of the world shows deteriorating weak growth. The US composite beat expectations and accelerated to 55.3 from 54.1…
The November Philly Fed manufacturing survey missed expectations and fell to -5.5 vs. 10.3 in October. New orders and shipments softened although they still indicate growth. Most indicators of current activity decreased, while indicators of expectations…
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y. We do not expect…
Our US Equity strategists investigated the underperformance of the Green and Clean (G&C) investment theme, in the context of an incoming US administration expected to be less friendly towards green initiatives. The G&C investment theme has…
Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed. At about 4.4%, the…
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
Housing activity data missed expectations and decreased in October. Building permits came out at 1.416m vs. 1.428m in September, and housing starts decreased from 1.354m in September to 1.311m. Units under construction keep falling. Meanwhile, the November…
Our Global Investment Strategy team examined the risk of a fiscal crisis amid rising global debt levels. Stabilizing the US debt-to-GDP ratio would require a nearly 4% GDP improvement in the primary budget balance at current Treasury yields. Reducing…
As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since March, a recommendation reinforced by two of our…
October retail sales beat expectations, printing 0.4% m/m on top of positive revisions for September. However, the numbers were weaker when adjusting for autos or other volatile components, with the control group declining 0.1% from 0.7% growth in September. …